Climate adaptation, particularly improvements in agricultural productivity, significantly weakens migration pressures linked to drought and armed conflict in Africa, according to a new study by researchers at Chungnam National University in South Korea.
The research, led by Professor Hyun Kim, Associate Professor in the School of Public Administration at Chungnam National University, analyzed 20 years of data from 1995 to 2015 across African nations. The article was made available online on November 25, 2025, in the journal Sustainable Development.
Climate change and armed conflict rank among the strongest drivers of migration across Africa. The study finds that while drought and armed conflict are strongly associated with increased migration, higher levels of adaptive capacity substantially reduce migration when these stressors are present.
Rather than serving as a standalone solution, climate adaptation acts as a moderating force. Countries with stronger adaptive capacity experience lower migration levels during drought or armed conflict than less adaptive countries. This capacity is measured through key indicators, including agricultural output, access to water, health systems, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.
Agricultural productivity plays a particularly important role. Higher crop yields are consistently associated with lower migration, highlighting how food security and livelihoods help stabilize communities during climate and conflict related shocks, Doctor Hyun Kim said.
The researchers examined migration data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), armed conflict records from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project, drought data from the EM DAT (Emergency Events Database) disaster database, and climate adaptation indicators from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index. Migration was quantified by annual population movements originating within the countries, including internally displaced persons and asylum seekers.
The study finds that armed conflict and drought independently increase migration risk. However, their combined effects are significantly weakened in countries with stronger adaptive capacity. This moderating effect is most pronounced during crisis conditions, suggesting that climate adaptation policies are especially critical when communities face overlapping environmental and security threats.
Climate adaptation is often framed as a long term environmental strategy. Our findings show it also has immediate social benefits by reducing migration pressures stemming from both climate hazards and armed conflict, Professor Kim said.
Beyond migration outcomes, the results align closely with several United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including Good Health and Wellbeing (SDG 3), Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10), Climate Action (SDG 13), and Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (SDG 16). Strengthening adaptive capacity, particularly within the agricultural sector, may help prevent humanitarian crises by addressing climate vulnerability before displacement escalates.
Africa confronts escalating internal migration and displacement crises fueled by intensifying climate hazards, particularly prolonged droughts, and persistent armed conflicts, which compound vulnerabilities across the continent. Previous research clearly links these stressors to heightened population movements, but limited empirical work examines climate adaptation’s role, especially agriculture’s influence, in moderating these effects at grid and country levels.
While the study focuses on Africa, the authors note that the findings hold broader implications for global debates on climate finance, climate justice, and migration governance. As climate risks intensify worldwide, the research underscores the importance of prioritizing adaptation as part of integrated strategies to reduce displacement and enhance resilience in vulnerable regions.
The study comes as Africa faces unprecedented climate driven migration challenges. According to recent data, sub Saharan Africa accounted for 80 per cent of the world’s internally displaced people in 2023, with climate shocks and armed conflict being the primary drivers.
The World Bank projects that climate change could force 86 million people in sub Saharan Africa to migrate within their own countries by 2050 if no concrete climate and development action is taken. The most climate vulnerable hotspots are expected to emerge by 2050 in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa.
Agricultural productivity remains central to African livelihoods, with approximately 60 per cent of the continent’s population employed in agriculture. However, climate change threatens agricultural systems through increased droughts, floods, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, directly impacting food security and rural livelihoods.
The study’s findings suggest that investments in agricultural resilience, water management infrastructure, and disaster preparedness systems could serve dual purposes by both reducing climate vulnerability and minimizing forced migration.
Hyun Kim is an Associate Professor in the School of Public Administration at Chungnam National University, where he serves as Director of both the National Policy Research Institute and the Climate Environment Society Digital Innovation (CSI) Research Institute. His work is dedicated to strengthening the science policy interface by integrating urban and environmental policy with science, technology, and economic innovation.
Prior to his current appointment, Doctor Kim completed postdoctoral training at the University of Notre Dame and earned his PhD (Doctor of Philosophy) in Urban and Environmental Planning and Policy from the University of Wisconsin Madison in 2015.
Chungnam National University, located in Daejeon, South Korea, is a leading national university renowned for its excellence in research and education. Established in 1952, CNU (Chungnam National University) offers diverse programs in engineering, medicine, sciences, and the arts, fostering innovation and global collaboration.
Situated near Daedeok Innopolis, a major research and development hub, it excels in biotechnology, materials science, and information technology. With a vibrant international community and cutting edge facilities, CNU continues to drive academic and technological advancements.
The research paper is titled When Migration Encounters Adaptation in Africa: Engaging With Climate Hazard and Armed Conflict and is published in the journal Sustainable Development with DOI (Digital Object Identifier) 10.1002/sd.70475.
