The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, with emerging markets in Asia expected to account for the bulk of incremental consumption, even as a sharp contraction in global refinery output tightens product markets and lifts margins across major fuel categories.
The assessment, contained in OPEC’s April Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), projects quarterly demand growth of 1.5 million barrels per day year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slowing to 0.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter before recovering to 1.6 million barrels per day in both the third and fourth quarters. The mid-year softening reflects temporary demand disruption linked to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, which OPEC expects to reverse as transport and industrial activity strengthens in the second half of the year.
China remains the single largest contributor to incremental demand, with consumption forecast to rise by approximately 0.2 million barrels per day in each remaining quarter of 2026, supported by mobility and industrial output. India is projected to add 0.2 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters, increasing to 0.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Other Asia, alongside Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, is expected to contribute additional volumes, reinforcing broad-based growth across developing markets.
Within advanced economies, the picture is more subdued. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Americas is forecast to grow by around 60,000 barrels per day in the second quarter before accelerating modestly through the rest of the year. OECD Europe is expected to remain broadly flat in the second quarter before posting marginal gains. OECD Asia Pacific is set to soften mid-year before returning to growth in the fourth quarter.
On the fuel side, gasoline demand is forecast to grow by 0.4 million barrels per day for the full year, with the strongest gains concentrated in the third and fourth quarters as summer driving activity peaks. Jet fuel and kerosene demand is projected to rise by 0.3 million barrels per day for the year, with aviation recovery driving an acceleration in the second half. Diesel is expected to add 0.2 million barrels per day across 2026.
The demand outlook sits alongside a significant supply-side development. Global refinery processing rates fell to 77.1 million barrels per day in March, a drop of 5.0 million barrels per day from the previous month and 4.1 million barrels per day below year-earlier levels. The contraction, the steepest monthly decline since April 2020, was driven by deep run cuts in the East of Suez region and a seasonal maintenance peak. Overall crude intake was estimated at 4.8 million barrels per day below normal levels, with roughly two-thirds of the shortfall attributed to geopolitical factors.
The reduced throughput has tightened product availability and supported stronger refining margins, particularly in middle distillates. US refiners bucked the global trend, with crude intake rising by 380,000 barrels per day in March as plants returned from maintenance and responded to improved margins.
Looking ahead, OPEC said the combination of lower refinery runs and stronger seasonal transport fuel demand is likely to sustain elevated product margins through the remainder of the year, with further upside possible if supply constraints persist into peak summer consumption months.
