Seven of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) producers have agreed to raise collective output by 188,000 barrels per day in June, pressing ahead with a gradual unwinding of voluntary supply cuts in their first coordinated decision since the United Arab Emirates (UAE) formally departed the group on May 1.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met virtually on Sunday to review global market conditions and agreed to implement the adjustment from voluntary cuts first announced in April 2023. The June increase is slightly less than the 206,000 barrels per day raise the group announced last month.
The decision carries a significant practical caveat. The rise is largely theoretical, since producers in the Persian Gulf are still unable to export a substantial portion of their crude due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaging 35.06 million barrels per day in March, down 7.7 million barrels per day from February.
In a joint statement, the seven countries described their approach as “cautious and flexible,” leaving open the option to increase, pause or reverse the phaseout of voluntary reductions depending on how market conditions develop, including potential reversal of earlier voluntary cuts announced in November 2023.
The group also said the adjustment would allow member countries to accelerate compensation for previous overproduction, reaffirming their commitment to the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation and pledging to offset any excess output recorded since January 2024. Monitoring of production levels and compliance will continue under the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), with monthly reviews of market conditions and member discipline.
UAE Exit and Hormuz Disruption
The meeting was the first since the UAE, historically one of the group’s most influential members and its third-largest producer before the Iran war began, announced it was withdrawing from OPEC effective May 1 after years of tension over production quota allocations. Credit rating firm Fitch said the UAE exit would have no immediate impact on the country’s metrics, though it could boost its oil revenues in the longer term once the Strait reopens, as the country would no longer be constrained by OPEC production decisions.
Goldman Sachs updated its outlook in late April, lifting its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90 a barrel and warning that if the strait remains effectively shut and additional regional supply is lost, Brent could reach $120 in the third quarter.
Oil prices had fallen on Friday after Iran sent an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, with Brent settling at around $108 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closing near $102. Both benchmarks remain roughly 78% higher since the start of 2026. The seven OPEC+ producers will reconvene on June 7 to reassess conditions and determine the next steps for production policy.
