Ghana’s government narrowly missed its 2025 revenue target, with a near-halving of oil and gas receipts and persistent tax shortfalls combining to leave the public purse GH¢5 billion short of projections, according to data in the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) March 2026 Monetary Policy Report.
Total revenue and grants for the year reached GH¢224.9 billion, equivalent to 16.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), against a target of GH¢229.9 billion or 16.4 percent of GDP. While the gap appears modest on paper, its composition reveals structural vulnerabilities that carry consequences for fiscal planning and public investment.
The most striking shortfall came from oil and gas receipts, which collapsed to GH¢8.7 billion against a target of GH¢16.5 billion — a 47.3 percent underperformance. Year-on-year, the figure fell 56.1 percent, exposing Ghana’s continued fiscal dependence on crude revenues that are inherently sensitive to global price shifts and production uncertainties.
Tax revenue, which forms the backbone of government financing, came in at GH¢184 billion, approximately 3.1 percent below target. The shortfall cut across income and property taxes, domestic goods and services levies, and international trade taxes, pointing to enduring challenges in tax compliance, informal sector coverage, and system leakages despite ongoing digitisation reforms.
Grants also underperformed, reaching GH¢1.8 billion against target, falling short by 31.8 percent, though they recorded a modest year-on-year increase of 6.3 percent. The shortfall reinforces the unpredictability of external donor support and the case for stronger domestic resource mobilisation.
Non-tax revenue provided a partial offset, coming in at GH¢27.9 billion and exceeding its target by five percent, though year-on-year growth was a subdued 0.5 percent. Dividends, interest, and oil-related profit flows remained below expectations despite the aggregate outperformance. A brighter spot came from “other revenue” sources, which exceeded targets by eight percent and more than doubled compared to 2024, signalling improved collection in areas that have historically attracted less attention.
The overall picture, while a narrow miss, carries practical consequences. Lower-than-expected revenues can constrain capital spending, delay infrastructure projects, and increase pressure on government to introduce new revenue measures. A separate BoG analysis published earlier showed that capital expenditure fell 59 percent short of its 2025 budget target despite the headline deficit coming in below projection.
The results reinforce the urgency of broadening Ghana’s tax base, reducing oil revenue dependency, and improving collection efficiency across all revenue channels as the government presses ahead with its IMF-supported fiscal consolidation programme.
