Gold traded near $4,761 per ounce on Tuesday as markets absorbed the fallout from collapsed peace talks and a new American naval blockade of Iranian ports, leaving the precious metal caught between the prospect of renewed diplomacy and the risk of fresh escalation.
Spot gold had slid to around $4,730 on Monday after marathon negotiations in Islamabad between the United States and Iran ended without an agreement, and Washington announced it would begin blockading all traffic into and out of Iranian ports. The metal partially recovered on Tuesday as official figures confirmed a modest rebound.
Trump told reporters Monday that Iran had contacted the White House that morning and that his administration remains open to a second round of in-person talks, with officials discussing details of a potential follow-up meeting before the two-week ceasefire expires on April 21. That signal tempered further selling pressure on gold, even as the broader situation remained fragile.
US Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation in Islamabad, said Iran’s team was not in a position to conclude a deal, and that it is now up to Tehran whether more direct talks take place. The International Chamber of Shipping described the port blockade as a step backward and called the situation in the Strait of Hormuz extremely concerning.
The conflicting signals have left gold oscillating between its competing roles. Oil surged back above $100 a barrel after the blockade was announced, with WTI trading near $104 and Brent around $102, reviving inflation concerns that keep pressure on central bank rate expectations and weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold.
Despite Tuesday’s partial recovery, gold remains roughly 10 percent below levels seen at the onset of the conflict, when the metal had been trading near its early-2026 highs. Longer-term institutional forecasts remain constructive, with JPMorgan maintaining a year-end price target of $6,300 per ounce and Deutsche Bank projecting $6,000, both banks treating the current volatility as a temporary dislocation rather than a structural reversal.
The next directional move will depend almost entirely on whether US and Iranian officials return to the negotiating table before the ceasefire deadline.
