Crude oil shipments to Asia from Europe and major West African producers Nigeria and Angola are projected to rise by approximately 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, reaching 3.72 million bpd, as the ongoing conflict involving Iran forces a fundamental restructuring of global oil trade, according to shipping data firm Kpler.
The disruption stems from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which an estimated 10 million bpd, roughly 10 percent of daily global oil consumption, ordinarily flows. Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East Gulf region have compounded the supply shock, leaving Asia, the world’s largest oil-importing region, scrambling for alternative sources.
With Middle Eastern supply effectively cut off, Asian buyers have turned to suppliers in Europe and West Africa to fill the gap, reshaping tanker routes and tightening crude availability across both regions. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said increased demand from Asian buyers is pulling supplies away from Europe, reducing the volumes the continent would otherwise use to balance its own market.
The competition for a shrinking pool of available barrels has driven prices to historic levels. The Dubai oil benchmark, the key reference for Middle Eastern crude, hit an all-time record of USD 169.75 per barrel on March 23, surpassing the previous Brent crude record of USD 147.50 set in 2008. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland crude, which helps set the dated Brent benchmark, traded at a record premium of USD 9.50 per barrel above dated Brent for European delivery, nearly USD 8 higher than pre-conflict levels.
Signs of tightness are visible across global benchmarks. North Sea Forties crude surged to a record premium of USD 7.20 per barrel above dated Brent, while short-term Brent swap markets moved into steep backwardation, a pattern that signals urgent near-term demand for physical barrels.
Several tankers carrying diesel and gasoil have been rerouted away from European destinations toward Africa and Southeast Asia. At least four tankers carrying a combined 430,000 tons of Middle Eastern and Indian diesel, which had begun sailing toward Europe in late February and early March, reversed course mid-journey to meet stronger demand in Southeast Asia.
Oil analyst Neil Atkinson, formerly of the International Energy Agency (IEA), described the dynamic plainly: fewer barrels are available globally, and the people who need them are bidding prices higher.
Nigeria’s state oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has added fresh supply to the market, exporting 950,000 barrels of Cawthorne Blend crude via the newly operational Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) Cawthorne terminal, Nigeria’s first new crude export terminal in five decades, according to a statement from Sahara Group. The cargo was initiated following licensing and gazetting by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The IEA, in its March 2026 Oil Market Report, warned that global oil supply is projected to decline by 8 million barrels per day in March, with non-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers only partly offsetting Middle Eastern curtailments. IEA member countries agreed in March to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to cushion the market, describing it as a significant but temporary measure in the absence of a swift resolution to the conflict.
