Heavy rainfall and localised flooding across Côte d’Ivoire triggered a sharp rebound in cocoa futures this week, even as the broader market grapples with rising inventories, a consolidating trade sector and a major new manufacturing investment from Mars.
New York’s July cocoa futures surged more than 10 percent during the week after reports of flood disruptions to transportation routes and farm access in the world’s largest cocoa-producing nation. London cocoa futures posted similar gains. Spot prices are now trading at approximately $4,100 to $4,200 per metric tonne, far below the historic highs above $12,000 reached in late 2024. Gains faded toward week’s end as the US dollar strengthened and traders refocused on building inventories.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) certified cocoa inventories have climbed to near two-year highs of approximately 2.75 million bags, reflecting a meaningful supply recovery. Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa regulator now projects national output will rise roughly 10.5 percent in the 2025/26 season, potentially reaching 2.0 to 2.1 million metric tonnes. Port arrivals continue trending above last season’s levels.
Despite those improvements, market analysts warn that early field surveys point to lower pod survival rates and weaker flowering conditions for the upcoming main crop, the result of earlier drought stress. Traders are also monitoring the possibility of an El Niño weather pattern later in 2026. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana together account for more than 60 percent of global cocoa output, leaving the market acutely sensitive to any sustained weather disruption.
On the corporate side, French cocoa merchant Touton is reportedly scaling back its storage and processing activities following its acquisition by commodities trading firm Hartree Partners. Africa Intelligence reported that Touton sold warehouse assets to a local partner in Côte d’Ivoire and divested a cocoa grinding plant as part of a broader restructuring. Neither Hartree nor Touton has officially confirmed the divestments. The reported shift suggests a move away from capital-intensive physical infrastructure toward a trading and origination-focused model, a response to rising collateral requirements and tighter bank financing that have squeezed processors since cocoa prices hit record highs in 2024. Hartree acquired Touton after receiving European Commission approval on January 23, 2026. Touton trades approximately 10 percent of global cocoa volumes.
Meanwhile, Mars moved in the opposite direction, committing £190 million to modernise its historic chocolate factory in Slough, England, the birthplace of the Mars Bar in 1932. The investment programme, which runs through 2028, will introduce robotics, artificial intelligence and digital twin technology to improve production efficiency and reduce waste. The Slough site employs more than 1,850 people and produces brands including Mars, Galaxy and Snickers for UK and European markets. In 2025 alone, the factory exported over 12.3 million kilograms of chocolate to the Netherlands and over 2.7 million kilograms to Ireland.
Consumer demand remains a lingering concern across the cocoa complex. Retail chocolate prices have not fallen materially despite the collapse in futures from 2024 highs, because manufacturers are still processing inventories purchased at elevated costs. Quarterly grinding data continues to signal weaker end-user demand compared with historical norms.
