The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged, warning that Middle East supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions are tightening physical crude markets and driving energy price volatility.
In its May Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC projected global oil demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, accelerating to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2027. Global economic growth projections were also left unchanged at 3.1 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027.
OPEC cited resilient growth across Asia, strong investment linked to artificial intelligence expansion and broadening global trade as key demand supports, even as inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty persist.
Oil prices stayed elevated in April as European and Asian refiners competed for prompt crude cargoes amid constrained Middle East supply flows. The OPEC Reference Basket fell $7.57 per barrel month on month to average $108.79, while Brent crude averaged $102.46 per barrel.
Physical markets appeared tighter than futures pricing suggested, the report noted, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forward curves moving deeper into backwardation, a structure associated with near term supply shortages.
Shipping constraints added further pressure. Very Large Crude Carrier freight rates on the West Africa to East route remained 129 percent higher year on year, even after easing from March peaks. United States (US) crude exports reached a record 5.3 million barrels per day in April, with buyers in Japan and South Korea actively seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern barrels.
On the supply side, OPEC flagged slowing growth beyond the producer alliance. Countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) are forecast to expand liquids production by roughly 600,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027, led by Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Qatar.
Investment trends point to longer term supply constraints. Capital spending on upstream exploration and production among producers outside the DoC fell by approximately $8 billion in 2025 to $281 billion and is projected to decline a further 5 percent in 2026. US upstream liquids investment dropped an estimated 7 percent in 2025 and is expected to fall another 12 percent this year as shale producers prioritise capital discipline despite elevated prices.
OPEC also revised its estimate for DoC member crude demand down to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026, though that figure would still represent a gain of around 400,000 barrels per day over 2025 levels.
