Global oil demand reached its highest level on record in 2025, driven by accelerating consumption across Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) newly released Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB).
World oil demand grew by 1.30 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year to reach an average of 105.15 mb/d in 2025, with the largest gains recorded in Non-OECD Asia, China, Africa, Latin America, India and the Middle East. The bulletin, the 61st edition of OPEC’s flagship statistical publication, covers data through the end of 2025 and was released on 29 April 2026.
Africa’s inclusion among the top contributors to demand growth marks a significant shift. The continent’s rising consumption reflects expanding access to transport fuels and petroleum-based energy as urbanisation and population growth accelerate fuel use across households and businesses.
On the supply side, total world crude oil production increased in 2025 by 2.24 mb/d compared to 2024, reaching an average of 74.85 mb/d. Crude oil production from OPEC member countries and non-OPEC oil-producing countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation increased by 1.22 mb/d and 0.12 mb/d respectively, while crude production from non-Declaration of Cooperation countries rose by 0.90 mb/d.
Refining capacity, however, barely kept pace. World refining capacity increased slightly in 2025 by 0.05 mb/d year-on-year to stand at 103.66 mb/d, with the non-OECD region, particularly Other Asia, India, the Middle East and China, recording the refining capacity additions. OECD countries moved in the opposite direction, recording a decline of 0.85 mb/d as older facilities were retired. For regions such as parts of Africa, where demand is rising faster than domestic refining infrastructure, the gap increases reliance on imported petroleum products and heightens exposure to supply disruptions and price volatility.
Trade flows continued to favour Asia as the dominant destination for crude. OPEC member countries exported an average of 19.85 mb/d of crude oil in 2025, an increase of 0.85 mb/d compared to 2024, with 14.79 mb/d heading to Asian markets.
Globally, refinery throughput increased by 1.17 mb/d to reach 86.89 mb/d in 2025, driven by higher run rates in OECD Americas and the non-OECD region, including China, Africa, India and the Middle East.
The bulletin also confirmed that global proven crude oil reserves edged higher, with OPEC member countries continuing to hold the majority of the world’s resources. The data collectively points to a market that remains structurally anchored to OPEC supply even as demand growth tilts decisively toward developing economies.
The findings carry implications for energy investment and policy, particularly across Africa, where rising consumption without matching refining capacity creates structural vulnerabilities. Even as energy transition efforts advance in wealthier nations, the bulletin’s data suggests oil demand across emerging markets will remain a durable force shaping global trade and investment patterns in the years ahead.
