Global oil prices settled sharply higher on Monday as the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran moved to within hours of expiry, with no confirmed second round of diplomatic talks and Iran’s foreign ministry stating it has no immediate plans to return to the negotiating table.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at $95.48 per barrel, a gain of 5.6 percent on the session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 6.8 percent to settle at $89.61 per barrel. The gains reversed much of Friday’s dramatic 9 percent sell-off, which had followed Iran’s short-lived announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial traffic.
Ceasefire on the brink
The truce, agreed on April 8 in exchange for Iran reopening the strait, expires on Tuesday, April 21. As of Monday evening, Iran had not confirmed it would send diplomats to a proposed second round of talks in Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said there are no immediate plans for new negotiations, while Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf cast further doubt on the prospect of resumed talks.
President Donald Trump told reporters on Monday that he was “under no pressure whatsoever” to reach a deal, and said a further ceasefire extension was “highly unlikely.” Trump also announced that a second US aircraft carrier strike group is en route to the region, joining the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln already operating there, with a third carrier expected by the end of the month.
Weekend escalation shaped the market
The session’s gains were driven by a rapid sequence of weekend events. On Sunday, the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it attempted to bypass the American naval blockade. Tehran vowed to retaliate. On Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired on a tanker transiting the strait, and a second vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, forcing other ships to withdraw from the waterway.
The violence undercut the brief optimism from Friday, when oil prices had fallen more than 9 percent after Iran declared the strait fully open, only for Tehran to reverse that position within hours after Trump refused to lift the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Supply disruption deepens
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its April short-term energy outlook that production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Bahrain are expected to reach 9.1 million barrels per day this month, up from 7.5 million barrels per day in March. The EIA had projected Brent prices could peak near $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 if disruptions persist.
Energy analyst Dan Johnston, cited by CNBC, estimated cumulative supply losses have already exceeded half a billion barrels since the conflict began in late February. He warned that even a deal announced immediately would not quickly unwind the logistical damage to global shipping routes.
Markets price the next 48 hours
European equity markets and Gulf sovereign bond markets are all pricing the next 48 hours with extreme caution. Oil traders, shipping operators, and policymakers are effectively positioning for two sharply different outcomes: a ceasefire extension that could trigger a relief rally, or a resumption of hostilities that analysts say would push prices sharply higher in an immediate market response.
Egypt is continuing efforts to bring both sides back to talks, in coordination with Pakistan, a regional source familiar with the negotiations told CNN. Despite the breakdown in formal diplomacy, several parties still believe a deal remains possible, though the gap between Trump’s stated conditions and what Iran can accept domestically is described as substantial.
With the ceasefire clock running down and no framework for an extension in place, oil markets face their most consequential 24-hour window since the conflict began seven weeks ago.
