Africa faces a loss of up to 0.2 percentage points of gross domestic product growth in 2026 as the Middle East conflict drives energy and fertiliser prices sharply higher, with the continent’s median inflation rate projected to reach 5 percent by year-end, according to the latest Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) published by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) and the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA).
The quarterly survey, the world’s largest regular poll of accountants and finance professionals, found that confidence levels in early 2026 fell to their lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The survey was conducted between March 3 and 19, meaning the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East coincided directly with the fieldwork period and weighed heavily on respondent sentiment.
A central driver of the Africa-specific threat is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a 95 percent drop in maritime traffic through the waterway. The resulting surge in energy and fertiliser costs carries particular consequences for African agriculture and trade, given the continent’s dependence on imported inputs for food production.
Geopolitical instability ranked as the top risk priority for accountants in the first quarter, only the second time since the global risk survey was added to the GECS in Q2 2023 that economic risks did not hold the top position. Cyber risks ranked second while economic risks fell to third.
Jamil Ampomah, Director for Africa at ACCA, said trust erosion is becoming a defining operating challenge. “Respondents point to AI and cyber threats amplifying other risks,” he noted, adding that declining confidence in institutions and leadership now shapes how businesses across Africa read the macro environment.
A two-week ceasefire in April brought brief optimism to markets, but significant uncertainty remains. Even if a more lasting resolution emerges, energy and commodity prices are expected to stay elevated.
ACCA Chief Economist Jonathan Ashworth warned that central banks face difficult choices, noting that years of above-target inflation have constrained policymakers’ room to absorb new commodity shocks. High government debt levels further limit fiscal response options in many countries, including advanced economies.
Despite the gloom, the survey recorded some resilience. The Global New Orders Index reached its historical average, and the Global Employment Index improved modestly, suggesting the world economy entered 2026 in reasonable shape before the conflict escalated.
