The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that the Middle East conflict is threatening Africa’s economic growth in 2026, fuelling higher import costs and renewed inflation pressure across a continent still working to consolidate its post-pandemic recovery.
In its latest economic outlook, the AfDB projected Africa’s growth will ease to 4.2% in 2026, down from 4.4% in 2025, before recovering in 2027. The bank attributed the slowdown primarily to supply chain disruptions and rising global energy prices linked to the conflict involving Iran and growing instability around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically critical oil shipping routes.
The bank cautioned that a prolonged crisis could push the growth figure lower still, potentially to around 4%, as higher fuel, food and fertilizer prices feed through to import-dependent economies with limited capacity to absorb external shocks.
On inflation, the picture is already deteriorating. The AfDB now expects average inflation across Africa to reach 10.4% in 2026 as elevated freight and energy costs ripple through transport, food supply chains and domestic markets. That figure represents a significant upward revision from what had been an improving trend earlier in the year.
Despite the headwinds, Africa is still projected to rank among the world’s fastest growing regions, outpacing Europe and Latin America. More than 20 African countries are forecast to sustain growth above 5%, supported by commodity exports, agricultural production and ongoing structural reforms. East Africa is expected to remain the continent’s fastest growing region, even with a slight moderation in pace.
The picture diverges sharply across regions. Southern Africa faces weaker momentum, held back by persistent challenges in the mining and energy sectors. Oil-producing nations in Central and North Africa, however, stand to benefit temporarily from elevated crude prices, giving a short-term fiscal cushion to governments that can capitalise on higher export revenues.
AfDB President Sidi Ould Tah stressed that the continent must reduce its reliance on shrinking flows of foreign aid and concessional financing, and instead build stronger domestic capital markets capable of funding development internally. The bank estimates Africa faces an annual development financing gap exceeding $1.3 trillion, spanning infrastructure, energy, healthcare, climate adaptation and industrial growth.
The warning underscores a vulnerability that policymakers across Africa have long acknowledged but struggled to address. Geopolitical instability in regions with no direct African involvement is proving increasingly capable of redirecting inflation trajectories, disrupting trade flows and compressing growth across the continent.
