The war in the Middle East delivered its sharpest blow yet to global aviation in March 2026, dragging down both passenger and cargo markets even as African carriers recorded their strongest growth figures in recent years, according to data released on April 29, 2026, by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Global passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, rose just 2.1 percent year-on-year in March, a figure IATA said would have reached 8 percent had the Middle East been excluded. International passenger traffic fell 0.6 percent, the first decline since March 2021, as Middle Eastern carriers absorbed a 60.8 percent collapse in demand following the closure of much of the region’s airspace due to the US-Israel-Iran war. Air cargo was hit even harder: global cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, fell 4.8 percent year-on-year, with Middle Eastern cargo carriers recording a 54.3 percent drop as Gulf hub operations ground to a near-halt.
Against that backdrop, African carriers emerged as one of aviation’s clearest bright spots. Passenger demand on African airlines rose 19.2 percent year-on-year in March, with load factors climbing sharply to 77.7 percent. African airlines also posted the strongest cargo growth of any region, with demand up 7.0 percent even as their cargo capacity fell 4.6 percent, pointing to tighter utilisation and rising efficiency. The Africa-Asia cargo trade lane led global growth at 22.6 percent year-on-year, marking a ninth consecutive month of expansion, while Asia-Europe extended its own 37-month streak of unbroken cargo growth at 14.2 percent.
European and Asia-Pacific carriers also benefited from the regional disruption. Traffic between Europe and Asia surged 29.3 percent as airlines launched direct services to replace routes that previously transited the Middle East. Asia-Pacific passenger demand rose 11.5 percent overall, supported by residual Lunar New Year travel and double-digit growth on non-Middle East international routes.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh flagged a new risk building across the industry. Jet fuel prices rose 106.6 percent year-on-year in March alongside a 43.1 percent increase in crude oil prices and a 320 percent surge in refining margins. He warned that while the cost spike had not yet dampened forward bookings ahead of the northern hemisphere summer, the pressure was intensifying.
“Airline resilience is being tested and stabilizing the supply and price of fuel is crucial,” Walsh said, adding that regulators should be prepared to grant airlines flexibility on airport slots in light of the extraordinary airspace restrictions and potential fuel rationing facing parts of the industry.
Despite the disruptions, broader economic indicators remain positive. Global industrial production grew 3.1 percent year-on-year in February, and the global goods trade expanded 8.0 percent. The Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 51.4, above the threshold signalling expansion, offering grounds for cautious optimism heading into the second quarter.
