Global oil prices plunged on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to commercial shipping, triggering one of the sharpest single-day crude sell-offs since the United States-Iran war began in late February and raising fresh hopes of a broader peace agreement.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down more than 11 percent on Friday, falling to a five-week low, while gasoline prices dropped sharply as energy markets responded to Iran’s announcement that the strategic waterway was now open.
Brent crude futures retreated to near $89 a barrel in London, erasing most gains recorded since the start of the conflict, while West Texas Intermediate slumped to around $83 in New York. European benchmark gas prices also fell as much as 10 percent.
The sell-off followed remarks by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, who declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open during a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump had said late Thursday that the war with Iran “should be ending pretty soon,” and the combination of statements drove rapid repositioning across futures markets.
The Hormuz disruption and its scale
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Since the conflict began, more than 34,000 ships have diverted from the strait over the past month, and the Containerized Freight Index, the benchmark for shipping container costs, has jumped more than 10 percent over the last month and is up more than 35 percent from the same period a year ago.
Goldman Sachs said in a note this week that flows through the strait had been running at just about 10 percent of normal levels, roughly 2.1 million barrels per day on a four-day moving average.
Despite Friday’s price collapse, the situation remains fluid. Trump said in a Truth Social post that a United States naval blockade of Iran’s ports will remain in full force until the U.S. reaches a formal deal with Iran, even as he thanked Tehran for opening the strait. The fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire on April 21, and a second round of negotiations has not yet been formally scheduled.
ING analysts warned that physical oil markets are becoming tighter every day that passes without a full restart of oil flows through the strait. Even accounting for pipeline rerouting and limited tanker movements, the bank estimates roughly 13 million barrels per day of supply has been disrupted, a figure that could rise further under an extended U.S. blockade.
Implications for Ghana
For Ghana, the price drop carries immediate economic significance. As a net crude oil exporter but a heavy importer of refined petroleum products, the country is exposed to global price swings through both its export revenues and its domestic energy costs. A sustained drop in crude prices would ease pressure on the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) and Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) when setting ex-pump prices, potentially providing relief to transport operators and consumers at a critical point in the domestic economic calendar.
Lower global oil prices may also reduce the immediate pressure on foreign exchange demand linked to fuel imports, offering some indirect support to the cedi. However, any decline in benchmark crude prices will also weigh on Ghana’s projected petroleum export revenues, requiring the Ministry of Finance to reassess its mid-year fiscal assumptions.
The overriding caution from analysts is that Friday’s move, while dramatic, does not yet signal a settled peace. The U.S. Energy Information Administration had projected that Brent prices could peak in the second quarter of 2026 at around $115 a barrel, with any price recovery expected to be gradual as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume slowly due to logistical constraints.
Until a formal, verified agreement is reached between Washington and Tehran and tanker flows return to pre-war levels, Ghana’s energy planners and business community face a volatile pricing environment that could shift sharply in either direction within days.
