Gold prices edged higher on Friday, hovering near the $4,500 level as investors balanced cautious optimism over a possible United States-Iran peace framework against persistent uncertainty about inflation and interest rates.
Spot gold rose to around $4,514.59 per ounce, up approximately 0.4 percent on the day, after recovering from earlier session volatility. June gold futures opened at $4,527.60 before climbing to $4,560.40 in early trade. The metal has shed roughly 2.3 percent over the past month but remains up an estimated 37 percent year-on-year, reflecting the sharp price trajectory since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28.
Sentiment on Friday was supported by reports that Washington and Tehran are exploring a preliminary agreement that could include a 60-day extension of their ceasefire, renewed talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and potential steps toward easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television reported details of an unofficial draft memorandum under which the two countries would restore traffic flows through the strait, which has been a key driver of energy inflation since the conflict began.
The prospect of reduced geopolitical risk eased concerns about further oil-driven inflation spikes, which had previously strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy globally. Easing inflation fears have in turn supported expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026, providing some floor under gold prices.
Uncertainty persists, however. US President Donald Trump has not yet approved the proposed terms, while Vice President JD Vance cautioned that negotiations remain fragile and at an early stage. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted, and fresh military exchanges this week briefly sent gold back toward $4,400, its lowest level since late March.
Gold’s performance in 2026 has been shaped by two competing forces. When energy-driven inflation fears dominated sentiment in February and March, gold fell sharply even as geopolitical risk rose, because investors priced in higher interest rates that reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. As ceasefire hopes have cooled oil prices and eased rate expectations, gold has partially recovered from its trough.
For Ghana, movements in gold prices carry direct economic consequences. Ghana is Africa’s largest gold producer and the world’s leading gold producer per capita, with gold accounting for approximately 50 percent of export revenues. Any sustained recovery toward prior highs above $4,800 would meaningfully improve the country’s export earnings and support the cedi’s stability.
