Nearly nine in ten leading global economists expect world economic growth to weaken over the next 12 months, with sub-Saharan Africa facing the highest inflation expectations of any region surveyed, the World Economic Forum (WEF) warned on Thursday in its latest Chief Economists’ Outlook.
The report, published in Geneva today, marks a sharp reversal from the cautious optimism expressed at the start of 2026. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, sits at the centre of the deteriorating outlook, driving up energy and food costs and disrupting global supply chains. An overwhelming 94% of the surveyed chief economists expect global inflation to rise over the coming year.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said: “The longer the disruption lasts, the heavier the long-term cost for those who can least afford it.”
The regional picture is deeply uneven. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces the sharpest reversal, with 88% of chief economists now expecting weak or very weak growth there after the region had been considered one of the brighter economic spots only months ago. Sub-Saharan Africa, where Ghana sits, now carries the highest inflation expectations of any region in the survey, as rising energy and food import costs squeeze household purchasing power across the continent.
Europe faces mounting stagflation risks as growth weakens while inflation fears climb. India and the United States are expected to remain comparatively resilient, supported by strong domestic demand and ongoing investment flows.
Despite the deteriorating outlook, the survey stops short of forecasting a global recession. Only 13% of chief economists expect a downturn within the next 12 months. However, the survey makes clear that much depends on how long the Hormuz disruption persists. A short shock could leave room for recovery, while a prolonged closure could push the impact toward the severity of the COVID-19 crisis. Financial markets are already showing strain, with 79% of respondents anticipating rising volatility in private debt markets, 74% expecting turbulence in public debt and 68% flagging increased stock market volatility.
On Artificial Intelligence (AI), 92% of chief economists expect greater adoption over the coming year. However, optimism about the speed of productivity gains has cooled since January 2026, with meaningful returns now expected to take longer across nearly all sectors. Only information technology and education have held steady in expectations, while engineering, construction, utilities, healthcare and care services face the most significantly delayed productivity gains.
The survey was conducted between 6 and 17 April 2026.
