Ghana posted a record quarterly trade surplus in the final three months of 2025, yet official data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) reveals that when adjusted for inflation, the country actually ran a deficit during the same period, deepening concerns about the sustainability of its export gains.
The GSS reported a nominal trade surplus of GH₵47.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, nearly tripling the GH₵16.7 billion surplus recorded in the third quarter. Total exports reached GH₵108.6 billion against imports of GH₵61.4 billion, with overall trade valued at US$15.1 billion.
However, in real terms, the picture reverses. Inflation-adjusted exports stood at GH₵30.0 billion compared with real imports of GH₵31.7 billion, producing an actual deficit of GH₵1.7 billion. The GSS attributed the gap to a sharp 23.2 percent quarterly surge in the export unit value index, driven largely by a 31.6 percent spike in gold prices rather than any meaningful increase in production volumes.
Gold accounted for GH₵72.7 billion, or approximately 67 percent of total exports, a level of concentration the GSS flagged as a structural vulnerability. The next highest export category trailed by a wide margin, reinforcing the lopsided nature of Ghana’s export base.
Asia absorbed more than half of Ghana’s outbound shipments, with India and the United Arab Emirates leading as primary destinations, leaving the country exposed to demand fluctuations in a handful of markets.
On the regional front, Ghana maintained a trade surplus with Africa, with South Africa accounting for 63.8 percent of intra-continental exports, a sign of growing momentum under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Nigeria remained the dominant source of imports from the continent.
Analysts say the data reinforces a recurring pattern: Ghana’s trade position improves when commodity prices rise and weakens when they fall, a cycle that has prompted repeated calls for export diversification, domestic value addition, and reduced dependence on raw material shipments.
