Four of the world’s leading development institutions have jointly warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict is transmitting economic shocks to Africa faster and through more concentrated channels than any previous global disruption, threatening to wipe at least 0.2 percentage points from the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 if the crisis extends beyond six months.
The African Development Bank Group (AfDB), the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) released a joint policy brief on April 2, 2026, on the sidelines of the 58th Session of the Economic Commission for Africa in Tangier, Morocco, outlining the scale of the threat and calling for coordinated action across immediate, medium-term, and long-term policy horizons.
The brief warns that what began as a trade shock risks turning rapidly into a continent-wide cost-of-living crisis, driven by surging fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, intensifying exchange rate pressure, and tightening fiscal conditions. As of March 24, 2026, oil prices had risen by 50 percent, raising pass-through inflation risks across African economies. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20 percent of global oil exports and nearly 90 percent of Persian Gulf oil exports, has seen drastically reduced traffic since the conflict escalated. The Middle East accounts for 15.8 percent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 percent of its exports.
The currency impact is already visible. According to data from the AfDB’s 2026 Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook report, the currencies of 29 African countries have depreciated since the conflict began, increasing the local-currency cost of servicing external debt, making imports more expensive, and weakening foreign exchange reserves. Countries identified as especially vulnerable include Senegal, Sudan, Cabo Verde, South Sudan, and The Gambia, which face a combination of high debt service, large fuel and food import bills, and weak reserves.
The brief flags fertilizer supply disruptions as potentially more damaging for some countries than the oil shock itself. Disruptions to Gulf liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply are affecting ammonia and urea production, constraining fertilizer availability during the critical March-to-May planting season and pushing food prices higher at a moment when low-income households are least able to absorb the pressure.
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, said the conflict has amplified existing fragilities. “Continued escalation of the conflict worsens global instability, with serious implications for energy markets, food security, and economic resilience, particularly in Africa where economic pressures remain acute,” he said.
The brief acknowledges that not all African economies face only downside risks. Nigeria stands to benefit from higher oil prices and increased exports through the Dangote Refinery, while Mozambique may gain from renewed momentum in LNG development and increased traffic through the Port of Maputo. South Africa’s Durban port, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius are benefiting from shipping rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, and Kenya is emerging as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi. The brief cautions, however, that these gains are likely to be uneven and may not offset the broader inflationary, fiscal, and food security pressures weighing on the continent.
On the geopolitical dimension, the brief warns that a wider conflict could intensify competition for influence in Africa involving the United States, Gulf states, China, Russia, Iran, and Türkiye, with fragile states in Sudan, Somalia, and Libya particularly exposed. It also warns that donor priorities may shift toward military spending and crisis response closer to the conflict zone, adding pressure on already constrained humanitarian and development financing for Africa.
Claver Gatete, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of UNECA, said the moment demands structural thinking alongside immediate relief. “This moment calls for decisive action, to protect people now, but also to accelerate Africa’s long-term push towards energy security, food sovereignty, and financial self-reliance. Crises like this reinforce why Africa must finance more of its own future and strengthen regional solutions that build resilience before the next shock hits,” he said.
Sidi Ould Tah, President of the African Development Bank Group, said coordinated action by African institutions and their partners is essential. “African institutions and development partners need to act swiftly and in concert, leveraging their comparative advantages to cushion short-term shocks while laying the foundations for long-term resilience,” he said.
The policy brief calls for immediate action including pooled fuel procurement, emergency food corridors, diversified fertilizer sourcing, targeted social protection for the most vulnerable, and countercyclical financing from regional and international financial institutions. Over the medium term, it calls for strengthening African refining capacity, accelerating deployment of renewable energy, deepening regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and building continental financial safety nets. In the long term, the brief recommends that the African Union champion a Continental Crisis and Resilience Compact built around energy and food security, financial safety nets, and strategic trade and financing autonomy, including fast-tracking the African Financing Stability Mechanism (AFSM).
