Brent crude could climb above $100 a barrel if Iran has abandoned talks with the United States, deVere Group chief executive Nigel Green warned on Monday, as oil prices turned higher again.
Prices rose after Iran’s state affiliated Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran would stop indirect negotiations with Washington and move toward closing the Strait of Hormuz, citing what it called violations of a ceasefire. Reports also pointed to the Bab el Mandeb route linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy corridors, carrying roughly one fifth of global oil supplies, so any sustained closure threatens to tighten the market sharply.
Green said the prospect of a quick diplomatic resolution now looks far weaker. For months, he argued, investors assumed negotiations would eventually succeed and largely looked past each escalation, but repeated setbacks are starting to shift expectations. “Brent looks set to move above $100 and potentially stay there for a while,” he said.
A sustained move above $100 would risk reviving inflation just as major central banks have been easing interest rates, Green added, since higher energy costs feed quickly into transport, manufacturing and household budgets. That, in his view, would raise fresh questions about inflation, rates, corporate profits and consumer demand at the same time.
His forecast is one reading of a volatile market. Crude had fallen about 20 percent from its 2026 peaks during May on hopes of a lasting ceasefire, with Brent trading in the mid 90s dollar range late in the month before the latest news pushed it higher. The conflict began with United States and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, and shipping through the strait has been heavily disrupted since. Some analysts caution that even a reopening would only partly restore flows, given the damage to Gulf infrastructure and depleted inventories.
Green said much now depends on how long the conflict lasts, warning that confidence in a diplomatic outcome could weaken further if suspended talks and threats to shipping routes persist into the summer.
