A widening divergence between Ghana’s Treasury bill rates and the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) own Open Market Operations (OMO) bills is raising fresh concerns that the central bank may be heading toward another significant financial loss in 2026, even as the broader economy continues to benefit from lower inflation.
The most significant contributor to the BoG’s 2025 losses was the cost of OMO, which reached GH₵16.7 billion as the central bank aggressively mopped up excess liquidity to bring inflation under control. That strategy paid off: inflation fell for 13 consecutive months, dropping from 23.8 percent to 5.4 percent, and declining further to 3.2 percent by March 2026.
But the very success of that campaign has created a new problem for the central bank’s balance sheet.
Between January and April 2026, the cost for the government to borrow through Treasury bills fell sharply. By early March, the 91-day T-bill carried an annualised interest rate of just 4.83 percent. That collapse in government borrowing costs is welcome news for the national budget. For the BoG, however, it creates a structural trap.
Banks shifted away from ultra-low-yielding T-bills in March 2026 and redirected funds into better-priced OMO securities, with post-Monetary Policy Committee OMO auctions clearing at approximately 10.5 percent. That gap, between what the market demands for government paper and what the BoG must offer to drain excess liquidity from the banking system, is the core of the problem analysts are calling “negative carry.”
In practical terms, the BoG is paying roughly twice the prevailing market rate to keep money out of circulation. If the central bank’s own income is tied to falling market rates while its OMO liabilities remain elevated, the gap between what it earns and what it pays out continues to widen throughout the year.
The BoG faces a narrow set of options. It can aggressively cut OMO rates to align with the 4.9 to 6.9 percent range where T-bills are trading, accepting the risk that excess liquidity re-enters the economy and reignites inflation. Alternatively, it can hold OMO rates high, maintain price stability, and absorb the financial cost on its balance sheet for a second consecutive year.
A government-backed recapitalization plan running from 2026 to 2032 is intended to restore positive equity to the institution, but analysts warn that delays or shortfalls could prolong the bank’s weakened position.
For now, the BoG appears to be prioritizing price stability over its own profit and loss position, which may be the appropriate monetary policy choice for Ghana’s broader economic recovery but leaves the central bank’s financial health in a precarious position heading into the second half of 2026.
