Political risk analyst Mussa Dankwah has pushed back sharply against the growing assumption within Ghana’s ruling party that any of its candidates can deliver victory in the 2028 general election, insisting that internal delegate dynamics and national conditions will ultimately determine who is electable.
“It is absolutely not true any NDC candidate can win the 2028 election,” Dankwah wrote in a Facebook post on Sunday, adding that National Democratic Congress (NDC) delegates are equally unlikely to select a candidate they do not believe can win. “It is also not true NDC delegates will elect a candidate that does not have a good chance of winning the election,” he stated.
Dankwah, who serves as Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has been one of the most consistent voices tracking the emerging NDC flagbearer contest through regular polling. His firm’s latest tracking poll, released in April 2026, showed Johnson Asiedu Nketiah maintaining a lead in the race but with his advantage narrowing significantly, pointing to a highly competitive internal contest still in its early stages.
His Sunday comments come against the backdrop of rising internal tensions within the party, which analysts say are increasingly being shaped by early positioning for the flagbearer race. Dankwah had previously noted that developments within the NDC, including remarks made by Asiedu Nketiah during his ongoing Thank You tour, appear to be linked to early positioning ahead of the party’s next flagbearer contest.
He connected current party undercurrents directly to a decision made three years ago. In January 2023, the NDC replaced Haruna Iddrisu as Minority Leader with Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, a reshuffle that caused rancour among party supporters, particularly in Tamale South and Asawase, who called for the decision to be reversed. Dankwah argued that this controversy has never been fully put to rest and continues to shape internal discussions ahead of future elections. “There has been an undercurrent about why Haruna was replaced in 2023 and they can’t wash that issue away,” he noted.
The analyst also maintained that electoral outcomes in Ghana are primarily determined by national conditions rather than internal party manoeuvring. He cited the economy, unemployment, education, corruption, and infrastructure as the issues voters weigh most heavily at the ballot box. “In 2024 it was President Mahama and Bawumia and the rest who were on the ballot,” he said. “Those were the issues Ghanaians took into account.”
Dankwah has previously warned that the NDC flagbearer contest is “wide open,” with a large bloc of undecided delegates representing the most critical variable in determining the eventual outcome.
