The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026, in a decision that delivers one of the most significant blows to the cartel in its 66-year history.
The shock announcement came after the UAE was the target of missile and drone attacks for weeks by fellow OPEC member Iran. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have also severely constrained the UAE’s ability to export oil, threatening the foundation of its economy.
The UAE said the decision follows a comprehensive review of its production policy and its current and future capacity, and reflects the country’s long-term strategic and economic vision, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production. The country cited near-term geopolitical volatility, particularly disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, as further driving the decision.
The Iran war wiped out 7.88 million barrels per day of OPEC’s production in March, resulting in the biggest supply collapse for the producers’ group in recent decades. OPEC production fell 27 percent to 20.79 million barrels per day in March, surpassing the cuts recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic in May 2020.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the decision was not directed at any of its partners within OPEC. “This has nothing to do with any of our brothers or friends within the group,” he said, adding that the UAE retains the highest respect for Saudi Arabia’s leadership of the organisation.
The UAE produced 3.4 million barrels per day before the start of the Iran war and, following a $150 billion spending programme, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is close to achieving a target of five million barrels per day by 2027, a capacity goal that was brought forward by three years through sustained investment.
Analysts expect the UAE’s departure to lead to a reduction in global oil prices over time, as the country will no longer be bound by production quotas and can pump at full capacity. Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis noted the UAE can increase production rapidly and will act as a standard non-OPEC producer, maximising output.
Oil prices, currently above $110 per barrel, did not move significantly on Tuesday following the announcement, as current export constraints through the Strait of Hormuz mean the departure will have limited near-term impact on physical supply.
The UAE’s exit also reflects a broader deterioration in relations between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. The two countries, once close allies, have grown apart over economic competition and regional politics, with Saudi Arabia increasingly vying for foreign investment and tourism that had long been the UAE’s domain. Analysts warn the widening rift between the Gulf’s two biggest economies could affect security coordination and cross-border business across the region.
OPEC was founded in 1960. The UAE joined through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967, four years before the UAE was formally constituted as a state. Its departure strips the cartel of its third-largest producer and raises serious questions about the cohesion and long-term relevance of the alliance.
