Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan has issued one of the starkest warnings yet about the consequences of a United States and China military confrontation in the Pacific, telling a major business conference on Wednesday that disruptions currently seen in the Strait of Hormuz would amount to a mere rehearsal if war were to break out between the two superpowers.
Speaking at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event in Singapore on April 22, Balakrishnan framed the city-state’s foreign policy posture plainly: Singapore would not align itself exclusively with either Washington or Beijing, regardless of growing pressure from both sides.
“We will refuse to choose,” he said. “The way we conduct our affairs is we assess what is in Singapore’s long term national interest, and if I have to say no to Washington or Beijing or anyone else, we don’t flinch from that.”
The minister’s comments came against the backdrop of an active conflict involving US and Israeli forces and Iran, which has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Balakrishnan told delegates that the world was “witnessing the weaponization of interdependence” as key chokepoints are disrupted.
Singapore’s unique economic positioning informed the minister’s analysis. The US is Singapore’s largest source of foreign investment, while Singapore ranks among China’s largest foreign investors. He described Singapore as “exquisitely positioned to take advantage of developments in both America and China,” while warning that the greatest danger lay in that relationship fracturing.
Balakrishnan pointed to the Strait of Malacca, which Singapore straddles alongside Malaysia and Indonesia, as the Pacific equivalent of Hormuz if conflict were to escalate. At its narrowest, the Strait of Malacca measures just two nautical miles, compared with 21 nautical miles for the Strait of Hormuz, yet it carries an enormous volume of global trade.
Balakrishnan stressed that all three countries bordering the Strait of Malacca have a shared strategic interest in keeping it open, adding: “We will not participate in any attempts to close or interdict or to impose tolls in our neighbourhood.”
The minister said Singapore had conveyed to both Washington and Beijing that it operates under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), under which the right of transit passage is guaranteed to all nations. Asked if Singapore had ever been pressured to change this position, Balakrishnan said “not yet,” while acknowledging that pressure could yet come.
His remarks contrasted with comments at a separate event by Indonesia’s finance minister, who reportedly floated the idea of fees for the strait, though conceded it would be a complicated process.
Balakrishnan also emphasised trust as a tangible economic asset in an era of geopolitical turbulence, arguing that predictability and reliability carry real strategic value for a small, trade-dependent state navigating between the world’s two largest powers.
Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, who delivered the keynote at the same event, echoed the sentiment, saying trust can no longer be assumed but must be actively built and sustained.
