Opposition parties: Going, going, going….
By WILLY EYA
Sunday, March 04, 2012
“When will Nigeria have a vibrant opposition that can challenge the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) during elections?”.
The above is one question that would not stop to agitate the minds of critical observers in Nigeria. As it appears, the nation’s political turf is increasingly becoming smooth for the PDP and slippery for 50 other parties in the country.
Critical observers argue that while the ACN is struggling to steadfastly hold onto its territory in the South West, little or nothing is being done by other parties to extend their coast politically. For instance, except All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), All Progressives Grand ALLIANCE (APGA), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) striving to raise their heads, others operate only in name.
Even in the last presidential election, the battle was clearly between CPC and PDP even though the ACN is regarded as a more vibrant party in the country. Sunday Sun reports that with recent governorship election in five states, the reality on ground shows that unless the opposition parties form a strategic alliance, it may be difficult for them to wrestle power from the PDP again.
In the governorship election in Bayelsa, Cross River, Sokoto, Adamawa and Kogi states, the PDP had a landslide victory leaving the opposition counting their losses as usual. Political watchers argue that the outcome of the various elections showed the weaknesses of the opposition parties. Sunday Sun here captures why PDP still remains strong in the states in question.
Bayelsa
The oil-rich state is among the five which did not hold governorship election in April 2011 because of a court ruling that extended the tenure of the incumbents. However, in February, the Bayelsa election was held after weeks of uncertainty following the death of a governorship candidate of one of the political parties, and call by one of them for postponement on the ground that its candidature was not included in the polls.
After much battle, former House of Representatives member, Seriake Dickson of the PDP won the election. But the victory was foretold as it was not surprising that Dickson beat about 35 other candidates of different political parties who vied for the governorship seat. Before the election, many had predicted that the Bayelsa governorship election was like a coronation and a mere formality considering that President Goodluck Jonathan who is of the PDP would never have allowed any other party to take over the reigns of power in the state. In fact, it is not an exaggeration to say that PDP has overwhelmed the opposition in the state.
For those conversant with the politics of Bayelsa, the only threat the PDP had ahead of the election came within the party members whose loyalty were torn between the immediate governor of the state, Timipre Sylva and his successor, Dickson.
So, to the opposition in the state, the development came as a blessing in disguise.
Investigations indicated that Sylva’s loyalists had to join the ranks of the opposition parties in the state in a bid to reduce the chance of PDP at the election but that did not help matters. At the peak of his battle to remain relevant in the power game by the end of 2011, he was said to have held consultations with some opposition leaders, both within the state and Abuja to strategise on stopping the PDP standard-bearer at the poll.
The governorship candidate of the the ACN in the state, Dr Imoro Goodrich Kubor, was the standard-bearer of Change Advocacy Party (CAP). It was learnt that he had become the bride of Sylva. Speculations were rife last December that the governor offered the CAP candidate the sum of N500 million to fund his campaign.
During his declaration ceremony in Yenagoa on January 7, Kubor commended Sylva for his visionary leadership and implementation of laudable projects. Majority of those that graced the occasion were said to be loyalists and admirers of the former governor.
Observers had contended that despite the resolve of Sylva to seek legal redress to stop Dickson and turn the table in his favour, his intention was to rubbish PDP in the last poll. But despite Sylva’s effort, many had argued that he required a miracle for the opposition to take over the reigns of government in the state, as such a feat would be changing the course of history of Niger Delta politics. As a result of the no-love lost situation among members of the party, Sylva boycotted the primary elections. Some other aspirants also walked out and headed to the courts.
An indication that all was still not well with the party further came to the open on the day of swearing-in ceremony of his successor as none of the National Assembly members from the state was present. They were also conspicuously absent at the victory gathering of not only PDP members but virtually the whole Bayelsans who graced the Peace Park to mark the beginning of a new administration in the state. However, despite the internal crisis in the state’s chapter of PDP, the opposition parties still lack the cohesion to pose any serious challenge.
Cross River
For many, it was not surprising that
Liyel Imoke of the PDP was also re-elected in the recent governorship election in the state. INEC returning officer and Vice Chancellor of the University of Calabar, Profesor James Epoke had declared Imoke victorious, for scoring 451,544 votes and making mincemeat of 11 other contestants for the seat. Before the election, only the PDP, ACN, ANPP and Labour Party appeared to be serious contenders while some others had really nothing on ground in terms of structure.
Despite the effort of the opposition to upstage Imoke, it was obvious that he was by far a stronger force in the state considering that he contested the election as the incumbent governor. Realistically, the ACN is the only visible opposition party in the state and its membership is usually made up of defecting members of the PDP who decided to seek alternative platform. Critical observers maintain that the ruling PDP would have had a Herculean task winning the election if opposition parties were able to put their house in order.
They argue that Imoke’s perceived failure to step into the shoes of his predecessor, Donald Duke might have worked against his party if the opposition were united. But the crisis within opposition parties in Cross River gave the ruling party an edge even as some alleged that those behind the crisis in the main opposition parties were sponsored by the PDP. In Cross River, the PDP had been in power since 1999 and winning a ticket of the party in Cross River is highly celebrated because it is as good as having won a general election because of the seemingly near absence of opposition parties in the state.
But ironically, in 1999, the then All Peoples Party (APP) which transformed to ANPP, produced the Speaker of the Assembly with a PDP governor under former Governor Duke.
Sokoto
In the state reputed to be the seat of the Caliphate, the PDP also showed its superiority in the last governorship election. Though the opposition struggled to make some impact in the election, Aliyu Wamakko of the PDP was re-elected governor of the state with 518, 247 votes. He beat the ANPP candidate to a distant second.
The governorship election was visibly one sided, as the Sarkin Yamma, Sokoto, walloped his 19 other opponents with a wide margin to retain his seat. The result of the governorship election which showed a landslide victory for Wamakko, was quite significant when compared with the elections so far held in recent time.
It was the first time a governor would win in all local government areas with wide margin, while the closest opponents could only trail from a distance in each of the local governments. Like in other states, many argue that the opposition parties did not make enough preparation for the governorship contest, a factor Wamakko exploited to his advantage. Of the 30 political parties that registered for the election, only 20 of them fielded candidates. For critical observers, the opposition failed as in other states to join forces to tackle the overwhelming presence of the PDP.
Adamawa
In counting states where PDP has enjoyed reasonable influence, Adamawa would certainly not be left out. It was not surprising when Murtala Nyako of the PDP was declared winner of the recent governorship election in Adamawa State. He polled 302, 986 votes to beat the ACN candidate, Markus Gindir, who recorded 260, 405 votes. The CPC candidate, Buba Marwa, scored 107, 564 votes. Nyako won 13 out of the 21 local government areas in the state, while the ACN candidate won eight. Critical observers argue that lack of unity of purpose is what has denied the opposition in Sokoto a place in the politics of the state.
Many had expected that the two opposition parties would have merged to present a single candidate, since the combination of their votes would have exceeded that of the PDP by 67,000 votes. But the snag was that the CPC candidate, Brig Gen Buba Marwa (rtd), former military administrator of Borno and Lagos states, had too much ego to step down for Markus Gundiri, the ACN candidate, whose ethnic and religious background worked in his favour.
Gundiri took advantage of the sentiments in Adamawa, being the most ethnically diverse state in Nigeria and predominantly Christian, to launch his campaign for the governorship seat.
However, the election exposed the weakness of opposition parties in the state also.
Kogi
Since the ANPP lost its hold on the state in 2003, the PDP has enjoyed relative dominance in the politics of the state. It was little wonder that the ruling party led by Captain Idris Wada swept the governorship polls recently held in the state. According to INEC, Wada polled 300,372 votes to beat his closest rival, Prince Abubakar Audu of the ACN who had 159,913 votes.
Also, Elder Ubolo Okpanachi of the ANPP scored 9,642 votes to clinch the third position while his CPC counterpart, Chief James Ocholi, got 5,724 votes. In all, 19 political parties fielded candidates for the election.
Even though some have alleged irregularities in the process, others maintain that the outcome was expected considering that the PDP is undoubtedly on ground in the state. Facts on ground showed that all the three senators representing Kogi, seven of the nine House of Representatives members, 22 of the 23 state House of Assembly members and all the 21 local government chairmen in the state (all PDP members) were behind Wada in the race. As expected, the ACN posed the greatest challenge as its standard-bearer, Prince Abubakar Audu deployed his wealth of experience in politics to evolve plans to upstage PDP in Kogi. Audu defected from ANPP which he co-founded, and aligned with the ACN months before the contest.
Many argue that even though that gave him a direct access to the huge ACN party machinery but he did not have enough time to prepare for the PDP which has been in power in the state since 2003. As in other states, it was impossible for any opposition party to have beaten the PDP except through alliance with other parties.
