A new survey of National Democratic Congress (NDC) constituency executives has found the party’s emerging 2028 flagbearer race to be wide open, with Chief of Staff Julius Debrah and party National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah separated by less than two percentage points and no clear frontrunner in sight.
The poll, conducted by Africa Policy Lens (APL) between April 17 and 19 across all 276 constituencies and 2,408 respondents, placed Asiedu Nketiah at 31.9 percent and Debrah at 30.1 percent when delegates were asked who they would support as flagbearer. When asked who they would vote for if elections were held immediately, the margin barely shifted — Asiedu Nketiah at 32.7 percent, Debrah at 30.9 percent.
The consistency between general support levels and immediate voting intention suggests that voter preferences are currently firm, with little evidence of volatility or swing. APL’s Director of Research and Innovation, Hayford Mensah Ayerakwa, presenting the findings on Asaase Radio on Wednesday, said the data confirms there is no frontrunner at this stage. “The difference is not statistically significant, and anything could change,” he said.
Other contenders trail significantly. Haruna Iddrisu polled around 17 percent, while Cassiel Ato Forson secured between 13 and 14 percent. Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa and Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang registered minimal support in the survey.
A notable discrepancy emerged around Ato Forson. Despite placing fourth in vote intention, 27.1 percent of respondents identified him as a major competitive threat in the race, second only to Asiedu Nketiah. Ayerakwa said this mismatch could expose strategic vulnerabilities for other candidates. “If you misread who your real opponent is, you may focus your campaign wrongly,” he noted.
The survey found that leadership qualities dominate delegate decision-making, with experience and track record, personal integrity and honesty, and the ability to unite the party ranking as the top three considerations. Policy proposals ranked lowest. Ayerakwa described the finding on policy as surprising. “Unlike what we saw in other primaries where policy and ideas dominated discussions, here it is not the top priority for delegates,” he said.
The emphasis on party unity is also being read as a warning signal. With open campaigning not yet formally underway, delegates appear alert to the risk of factional splits once candidates begin contesting directly. “When the competition opens and candidates begin to campaign, that is when cracks may appear,” Ayerakwa said.
APL plans to release an expanded poll by the end of May incorporating branch-level executives, which will provide a broader picture of where the race stands across the party’s full delegate base.
