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Six weeks after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has grown in scope, cost, and political complexity, drawing in allies, fracturing domestic coalitions, and reshaping the geopolitical calculus of major powers from Beijing to Brussels.
The opening salvo of what the United States military designated Operation Epic Fury killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior officials. The initial wave of strikes also killed approximately 170 people when a missile struck a girls’ school adjacent to a naval base in Minab, near Bandar Abbas. Iran’s Interim Leadership Council installed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late supreme leader, as his successor on March 8. The new leadership has maintained Iran’s fighting posture without signalling a clear path to negotiations.
As of Saturday April 4, the war has entered its most dangerous phase yet on the ground. Less than 48 hours after President Donald Trump told the American public that the United States had “beaten and completely decimated Iran,” Tehran shot down an F-15E fighter jet, setting off a high-risk scramble by American forces to rescue two service members from deep inside Iranian territory. Iran also struck two Blackhawk helicopters and an attack jet that were assisting in the search and rescue effort. One crew member has been rescued; a search operation remains underway for the second.
Trump has now given Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to “unleash all hell” if Tehran does not comply. Iran has said it will grant permission for vessels carrying essential goods through the strait but has not provided specific terms, and a diplomatic scramble is underway to secure the critical shipping lane as oil prices and other disruptions send ripple effects across the global consumer market.
Fractures at Home
The political fallout within the United States has been significant and is intensifying. A CNN poll conducted just ahead of Trump’s April 1 national address found that just 34% of Americans approve of the decision to take military action in Iran, down 7 points from a poll taken at the start of the war, while strong opposition has climbed 12 points to 43%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that two thirds of Americans, or 66%, believe the United States should work to end its involvement in the Iran war quickly, even if that means not achieving all stated military goals, while 60% disapprove of the strikes.
Within Trump’s own political movement, the war has exposed real divisions. Outside criticism of the war was immediately fierce from conservative figures including Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Candace Owens, who made their opposition clear in the name of “America First.” Joe Kent, Trump’s top counterterrorism official, resigned over the war, stating the Iranian regime “posed no imminent threat to our nation.”
Congressional Republicans have been careful about the language they use. House Armed Services Committee chairman Mike Rogers left a closed-door Pentagon briefing incensed at what he described as evasiveness about the war’s goals and scope, yet took pains to make clear his “criticism has NOTHING to do with Operation Epic Fury,” adding he fully supports what the administration is doing. Representative Lauren Boebert said she was “tired of the Industrial War Complex getting our hard-earned tax dollars,” while Representative Nancy Mace stated flatly: “I will not support troops on the ground in Iran.”
Political analysts are watching the midterm implications closely. A Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll found that 24% of Republicans said the war in Iran was not a good use of taxpayer dollars. When asked what they would say if the price of gas rose by $1 per gallon, that number rose to 31%. Gas prices have already risen by approximately $1 since the war began.
The Geopolitical Reconfiguration
The war is accelerating strategic realignments that were already underway before the first strike. China condemned the operation from the outset. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning described the killing of Iran’s supreme leader as “a grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security” that “tramples on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.” On March 16, both China and US-aligned NATO nations in Europe rejected Trump’s call to provide military support to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rebuked his NATO allies, calling their decision a “very foolish mistake,” and the following day declared on social media that the United States “does not need the help of anyone” regarding the war.
The most visible beneficiary of the conflict, according to analysts at the Toda Peace Institute, has been Russia. Its economy, which had built its federal budget on oil price assumptions of roughly $60 a barrel, has been rescued by Brent crude surging toward $120 a barrel, providing the Kremlin with the capital needed to sustain its military operations in Ukraine. US officials say Russia is providing Iran with satellite imagery and intelligence on the locations of American warships and aircraft in the region.
For China, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the risks of concentrated Gulf supply chains, through which roughly 40 to 50% of its seaborne oil imports traditionally transited. Beijing has responded by accelerating a dual-track strategy of diversified energy procurement and a faster green energy transition, with North Africa emerging as a key arena for deepened geo-economic cooperation.
For the broader Global South, the economic damage is already tangible. The war disrupted global travel and trade, halted flights in and out of the Middle East, and led to shipping reroutes away from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Most African countries have not taken a definitive position on the conflict, while most Asian nations have condemned the US-Israeli strikes or called for peace.
The Path Ahead
The war has not produced the clarity of outcome its architects projected. Approaching the one-month mark, analysts warned that the war appeared to have entered a phase of attrition that strategically favours Iran, and the Trump administration had not articulated a unifying endgame for the conflict, instead hailing the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities.
Trump administration officials have offered diverse and changing explanations for starting the war, including pre-empting Iranian retaliation against American assets, destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, preventing a nuclear weapon, securing Iran’s oil resources, and achieving regime change. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that while Iran has an “ambitious” nuclear programme, there was no evidence of a structured nuclear weapons programme when the 2026 war began.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran has the “necessary will” to end the war, provided guarantees that the United States and Israel will not attack again. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said he is in contact with American counterparts. Whether those channels produce a negotiated outcome, or whether the war deepens further, remains the defining uncertainty of a conflict that has already reshaped the region and unsettled the world.
