Global financial markets are positioned for a broad relief rally on Monday after United States President Donald Trump said on Saturday that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been “largely negotiated,” raising the prospect of a rapid reversal in oil-driven inflation fears that have roiled global assets for weeks.
Trump announced on social media that an agreement had been largely reached between the United States, Iran and several other countries, with details to be announced shortly. Iran’s foreign ministry described the arrangement as a “framework agreement” serving as a first phase, with broader negotiations to follow within 30 to 60 days. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz is among the topics under discussion, and that lifting sanctions on Tehran has explicitly been included in the text as a fixed position.
Caution is warranted. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency said the agreement provided for Iran to continue to manage the waterway, calling Trump’s assertion that Iran would no longer control access “inconsistent with reality.” Sticking points remain on nuclear issues and sanctions, leaving markets facing residual uncertainty ahead of Monday’s open.
Nigel Green, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of global financial advisory firm deVere Group, said “a credible agreement to reopen the Strait changes market psychology rapidly.”
He predicted that bond markets will lead the initial reaction. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.7 percent this month while the 30-year moved above 5 percent, levels not seen since before the global inflation crisis cooled, as investors priced in a sustained energy-driven inflation shock. The 10-year eased toward 4.56 percent on Friday as optimism around the negotiations began filtering through. A meaningful fall in Brent would ease inflation expectations immediately and could trigger sharp gains in sovereign debt.
Brent crude settled at $103.54 per barrel on Friday, down more than 5 percent for the week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 8 percent to $96.60, as the US and Iran signalled progress in talks. Both benchmarks had surged far higher during earlier phases of the conflict, with analysts warning prices could reach $120 to $140 if disruption persisted through summer. Falling yields combined with lower energy costs are expected to lift technology stocks, airlines, transport firms and consumer-facing sectors in Monday’s session, while risk-sensitive currencies including the euro, pound and Australian dollar could strengthen as defensive positioning in the US dollar unwinds.
For Ghana, the implications are direct and verified. The Hormuz crisis pushed crude from around $63 per barrel in late February to a peak of $102, forcing Ghana’s Cabinet to absorb approximately GH¢200 million in foregone revenue through a fuel relief intervention to limit the pass-through to consumers. At the April pricing window, petrol rose by 16.1 percent and diesel by 18.6 percent.
Annual inflation had fallen from 22.4 percent in March 2025 to 3.2 percent in March 2026, a 19.2 percentage point drop, while the cedi had steadied considerably from its 2024 lows. The Bank of Ghana (BoG) cut its policy rate by 150 basis points to 14 percent in March, but analysts now expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold at its next meeting rather than extend the easing cycle, given upward pressure on near-term inflation. A sustained fall in Brent would ease that constraint and restore room for the BoG to resume rate cuts while reducing the cedi’s exposure to import-driven dollar demand.
Markets remain highly sensitive to confirmation. Investors will watch closely for evidence of sanctions relief, shipping access timelines and early signs that oil supply flows through the Strait can normalise before committing to the rally in full.
