Gold held close to $4,700 per troy ounce on Monday as investors weighed diplomatic signals from the Middle East against a strong United States labour market report that reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.
Prices opened the week around $4,672, according to data tracked by Fortune, before climbing above $4,700 in early trading as markets digested conflicting forces. Gold June futures opened at $4,648.60 per troy ounce on Monday, with prices rising above $4,700 in early trading as the market responded to a positive jobs report and mixed news from the ongoing Iran conflict.
The United States economy added 178,000 jobs in March, the highest monthly gain in nonfarm payroll in more than a year, a development that likely reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates. Strong employment data typically weighs on gold by reinforcing the case for keeping borrowing costs elevated, raising the opportunity cost of holding assets that generate no yield.
Reports suggest Donald Trump has informed advisers of a willingness to end the confrontation with Iran, while regional sources indicate that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian may agree to a settlement under certain conditions. Gains in gold have been limited, however, by declining demand for safe-haven assets as geopolitical tensions ease, with additional pressure coming from elevated United States Treasury yields.
Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 price target for gold to $5,400 per ounce, pointing to continued central bank diversification, ongoing inflation risks from the geopolitical situation, and portfolio shifts toward the metal as key drivers.
The 10-year Treasury yield has been a major driver of gold’s direction, with elevated yields above 4.3 percent weighing heavily on precious metals. The $4,600 level has emerged as significant short-term support, while analysts see a path to $5,000 if prices can first clear $4,800.
The Fed voted to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent at its last meeting, the second consecutive meeting with no change, and updated its projections to reflect a slightly faster pace of growth and higher inflation for 2026, with the personal consumption expenditures price index now expected to reach 2.7 percent this year.
Despite recent selling pressure, major banks remain bullish on the medium-term outlook. JPMorgan sits at a year-end forecast of $6,300 per ounce, Wells Fargo projects $6,100 to $6,300, and UBS forecasts $6,200, with all three characterising the current pullback as a short-term dislocation rather than a structural shift.
The week ahead carries several data events that could further shape direction, with the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on April 8 and United States gross domestic product data on April 9 among the key releases markets are tracking.
