Global soybean markets are heading deeper into oversupply following record harvests across South America, pushing prices well below their 2023 peaks even as demand from Africa’s rapidly expanding livestock sector continues to accelerate, according to research by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).
Soybean futures were trading near 1,150 US cents per bushel at the start of March, around 20 percent above August 2025 levels but still roughly 25 percent short of the June 2023 high. The recovery has been fragile. Prices have swung sharply since mid-2023, and the underlying market structure remains bearish.
The volatility traces back to a sequence of supply shocks that briefly tightened global inventories. Extreme weather in Argentina in 2023 cut that country’s output by more than half, falling to around 21 million tonnes, the lowest figure in 24 years. Smaller declines in United States production compounded the squeeze, forcing buyers to pivot toward Brazil, where logistics disruptions and drought added further pressure to prices.
That dynamic has since reversed. Brazil’s latest harvest exceeded 150 million tonnes, with projections pointing toward 180 million tonnes, while Argentina has staged a strong recovery. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) now forecasts global soybean stockpiles will reach a record 125.5 million tonnes in the 2025 to 2026 marketing year, reinforcing the case for continued price pressure.
Demand has not kept pace with the supply surge. China, which accounts for roughly 60 to 65 percent of global soybean imports, is expected to hold purchases steady at about 112 million tonnes, removing a potential source of upward price support.
Africa’s position in this market tells a different story. The continent produces approximately 6.5 million tonnes of soybeans annually, less than two percent of global output, even after a decade of expansion at an average annual growth rate of around 11 percent. South Africa leads regional production at about 2.8 million tonnes, followed by Nigeria and Zambia. South Africa’s 2025 crop came in at an estimated 2.75 million tonnes, a near-49 percent jump from the previous season. Yet despite these gains, major African economies including Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia remain heavily dependent on imports from Brazil, Argentina and the United States.
The gap between African supply and demand is set to widen. The continent is projected to remain less than 40 percent self-sufficient in soybeans by 2050, constrained by low yields, limited fertiliser use and inadequate logistics infrastructure. Consumption, meanwhile, is being driven upward by rapid growth in poultry and livestock industries that rely on soybean meal as their primary protein feed source. Around 37 percent of global soybean supply goes to poultry feed and 20 percent to pig feed, making the crop central to Africa’s animal protein economy.
The Middle East and Africa soybean market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 5.52 percent from 2025 to 2030, a trajectory that reflects Africa’s rising protein consumption as incomes and urbanisation rates climb.
Analysts say closing the continent’s soybean gap will require sustained investment in processing capacity and regional trade infrastructure. Afreximbank initiatives are working to link surplus-producing countries with feed-deficit markets and expand local crushing and milling facilities. Short-term price support could come from weather disruptions in the United States and logistical bottlenecks in South America, as well as growing biofuel demand. With stockpiles at record levels, however, the broader market direction points downward even as Africa’s appetite for the crop continues to grow.
