Global cocoa prices remained under sustained pressure this week, trading in the low $3,000s per metric ton as improving bean availability and rising exchange inventories outweighed still-fragile consumer demand, pointing to a market in the early stages of an uncomfortable normalization.
Benchmark cocoa was priced around $3,177 per tonne on April 9, drifting lower from settlements near $3,245 recorded earlier in the month. The front-month Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) United States contract opened near $3,210, reinforcing the sense of a market edging lower rather than staging a recovery. The decline extends a broader correction that has seen cocoa fall more than 50% from the record highs above $12,000 per tonne reached in 2024 and early 2025.
The chief driver of the bearish tone has been a visible improvement in Côte d’Ivoire’s supply picture. Port arrivals reached approximately 1.45 million metric tonnes through early April, running slightly ahead of the same period last year, while ICE-certified cocoa inventories climbed to roughly 2.42 million bags, their highest level in 19 months. When arrivals stabilize and certified stocks rebuild, the acute scarcity premium that sustained last year’s historic price rally becomes increasingly difficult to defend.
Yet the headline recovery carries important caveats. Côte d’Ivoire continues to hold its farmgate price at 1,200 FCFA (Franc de la Communauté Financière Africaine)/kg, well below the implied value of international prices, while the sector continues to grapple with contract defaults, unsold stockpiles, and inflexible pricing structures. Quality concerns have also emerged, with uneven weather, disease pressure, and drying issues raising questions about whether all higher-volume output will meet consistent export-grade standards. The gap between total arrivals and truly usable volumes may remain a relevant market factor even as the top-line numbers improve.
On the demand side, conditions remain weak. Early Easter chocolate candy sales came in around 5% below last year’s volumes, with retail chocolate prices still elevated because many products were manufactured when cocoa costs were near their peak. Manufacturers have been slow to pass input-cost relief through to consumers, contributing to what appears to be a demand hangover from the prior price shock.
The market’s next closely watched data point is the European Cocoa Association’s first-quarter grind statistics release on April 16, which will either confirm soft downstream processing volumes or deliver the first better-than-expected demand signal of 2026. Until then, the bias among traders and analysts remains neutral to mildly bearish, with improving Ivorian flows and high exchange stocks offering little support for a sustained recovery.
