Ghana’s economy shows remarkable surface recovery—the cedi soared 42.6% against the dollar in early 2025, inflation eased, and fiscal deficits narrowed.
Yet analysts warn these gains mask unresolved weaknesses that threaten to unravel progress without deeper reforms.
A mid-year review by Emerging Markets Advisory praises the currency rebound as “genuinely unprecedented” in sub-Saharan Africa, fueled by IMF disbursements, gold exports, and central bank action. But the report cautions: “Currency rallies can be fleeting.”
Fiscal discipline drove a 1.1% primary surplus, exceeding targets, as spending fell 14.3% below budget. However, cracks emerge beneath the optimism.
Customs revenues missed by GH₵1.6 billion, partly due to the cedi’s strength reducing import values. The wage bill overshot by GH₵1.3 billion, exposing ghost workers and payroll flaws. Most critically, debt looms large: GH₵20 billion due in 2026 and GH₵50 billion in 2027, despite recent restructuring.
Reform efforts face steep hurdles. New VAT policies aim to simplify taxes and aid small businesses, but with compliance at just 20%, success hinges on aggressive enforcement and digital tracking. Meanwhile, the government struggles with inherited arrears GH₵67 billion in contested obligations, of which GH₵3.6 billion already failed audit scrutiny. “Weak public financial management remains a systemic risk,” the report notes.
Broader capacity gaps persist. Energy projects face chronic under-budgeting, while some contractors draw loans without completing work. Though the banking sector stabilized after the National Investment Bank’s GH₵2.45 billion recapitalization, non-performing loans still haunt lenders.
Looking ahead, threats multiply: volatile gold prices, potential cedi reversal, climate shocks to agriculture, and unaddressed energy shortfalls. As the IMF program’s end approaches, EM Advisory urges urgent action—broadening the tax base, strengthening the Sinking Fund, and prioritizing revenue-generating projects. “Stabilisation is not transformation,” the report concludes. Without structural change, Ghana risks sliding back into its “familiar boom-bust cycle.”
