The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects growth across its sub-Saharan African economies to slow to 4.7 percent in 2026 from 5.2 percent in 2025.
The bank links the slowdown to higher energy costs, trade disruption and weaker investment tied to conflict in the Middle East, according to its latest Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report. It expects a modest recovery to 4.8 percent in 2027, with resilience uneven across countries.
Existing fiscal strains, commodity price swings, renewed inflation from higher energy and freight costs, and pre-election spending are compounding the pressure, the report says.
Among the stronger performers, the EBRD forecasts Benin growing 7.0 percent in 2026, easing from 8.1 percent in 2025 on the back of construction, agriculture and a completed International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme. Côte d’Ivoire is seen at 6.1 percent, supported by cocoa and rubber exports, though falling cocoa prices pose a risk.
Kenya is projected to hold at 4.6 percent, with construction and services offsetting weaker agriculture, even as public debt reaches 70 percent of GDP and repayments swallow about half of government revenue. Nigeria edges up to 4.1 percent on stable oil output near 1.46 million barrels a day, though inflation climbed back to 15.4 percent in March and debt servicing absorbs more than 70 percent of federal revenue.
Senegal shows the sharpest reversal, slowing to 2.5 percent in 2026 after 6.7 percent in 2025, when the Sangomar oil field lifted output. Government debt stayed high at about 120 percent of GDP, and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s local-currency rating in March, citing refinancing risks and stalled IMF talks.
The EBRD, a multilateral lender owned by 77 countries plus the European Union and the European Investment Bank, began operating in sub-Saharan Africa in 2025.
