Cocoa futures fell sharply on Wednesday, hitting their lowest levels in two and a half weeks as a stronger dollar and improving West African crop prospects pushed prices down by more than three percent on both New York and London exchanges.
May ICE New York cocoa futures closed down 102 points, or 3.15 percent, while May ICE London cocoa closed down 74 points, or 3.08 percent, as analysts pointed to several bearish factors converging on the market simultaneously.
Farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana have reported that consistent rains have boosted pod development on cocoa trees, pointing toward a potentially bumper crop and easing the supply concerns that had briefly supported prices in recent weeks.
ICE-monitored cocoa inventories climbed to a 7.75-month high of 2,349,227 bags on Wednesday, providing a tangible physical overhang that reinforced the bearish mood.
Demand conditions offer little relief. Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a 22 percent decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 2025, citing weak market demand. Industry grinding data from Europe and Asia confirmed the trend, with both regions recording year-on-year declines in the final quarter of 2025.
The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) forecasts a global surplus of 75,000 metric tonnes for the 2024/25 season, with analysts at StoneX projecting larger surpluses of approximately 287,000 metric tonnes for 2025/26 and 267,000 metric tonnes for 2026/27.
The Strait of Hormuz closure continues to provide some floor under prices by raising fertiliser costs and shipping insurance, while slower port deliveries from Ivory Coast down 2.8 percent year-on-year to 1.39 million metric tonnes through March 22 add a modest supply-side support.
Year-end median forecasts have New York cocoa futures closing 2026 at around $3,350 per tonne, reflecting limited upside from current levels and still roughly 45 percent below where prices ended 2025.
