Global air cargo demand rose 6 percent in May even as airline passenger traffic fell 2.2 percent over the same month, with war disruption in the Middle East pulling the two sides of the aviation industry in opposite directions, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported.
The split matters because it shows conflict in one region can drag down an entire travel segment while barely denting freight. Middle East passenger demand fell so sharply that it pulled the global passenger figure into negative territory. Strip the region out, and worldwide passenger demand would have grown 0.7 percent instead of shrinking. Cargo told a different story. Freight carriers in Africa, Asia Pacific, Europe and North America all grew faster than their long term trend, even as Middle Eastern cargo operators posted a combined 8.9 percent contraction of their own.
IATA measures freight volume in cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), a unit that tracks how much cargo actually moved. That figure rose 6.5 percent on international routes specifically. Available capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometers (ACTK), grew just 1.9 percent overall, meaning demand outpaced the industry’s ability to add space and pushed load factors higher.
Regional results ranged widely. African carriers led all regions with 13.3 percent growth in cargo demand, while capacity there grew only 1.3 percent, a gap that points to tightening space on African routes. North American carriers posted 10.5 percent growth, the second strongest performance. Asia Pacific carriers grew 8 percent, and European carriers grew 6.7 percent. Middle Eastern carriers were the outlier, with demand down 8.9 percent and capacity cut 9.2 percent as airlines pulled back operations rather than fly half empty planes.
Trade lane data pointed to where the growth actually came from. The Asia to North America corridor expanded 19.9 percent, its fourth straight month of growth, and now accounts for close to a quarter of global cargo traffic. Europe to Asia grew 10 percent, extending more than three years of consecutive monthly gains. Routes touching the Middle East told the opposite story. Europe to Middle East traffic fell 19.8 percent and Middle East to Asia fell 16.5 percent, each posting a third straight month of contraction.
Wider economic signals were mixed but leaned supportive. Global trade grew 5 percent year on year, extending more than two years of consecutive growth. Jet fuel prices dropped 16.3 percent from April to May but stayed 93.5 percent above year earlier levels, keeping cost pressure on airlines even as prices eased. A global manufacturing index tracking factory output rose to 53.5, comfortably in growth territory, though a separate measure of new export orders slipped to 49.6, signalling that gains were concentrated in specific trade flows rather than broad based export demand.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh struck a cautious tone on the outlook, saying conditions gave grounds for “robust demand and airline resilience.” He noted that Middle East uncertainty would likely keep weighing on parts of the industry through the rest of the year, even as cargo carriers elsewhere continue to benefit from resilient trade flows and higher yields that are helping offset elevated fuel costs.
