Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s military is preparing to wage prolonged guerrilla warfare if the United States launches a ground invasion, according to a Reuters investigation citing defense sources and planning documents.
The strategy emerges as tensions escalate in the Caribbean, where the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and accompanying warships arrived in Latin American waters in November as part of what Washington describes as counter narcotics operations. The Trump administration has deployed more than 10 warships including the Ford strike group and a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the region.
Venezuelan authorities acknowledge their conventional forces cannot match American military power. Sources with knowledge of defense planning told Reuters that Venezuela would not last two hours in a conventional war against the United States. This stark assessment has driven Caracas toward alternative defensive approaches.
The first strategy, termed prolonged resistance by Venezuelan officials, would involve splitting military units into more than 280 locations across the country to conduct guerrilla operations and sabotage against invading forces. Planning documents dating from 2012 to 2022 reviewed by Reuters show long term focus on preparing for what authorities call imperialist aggressions.
A second complementary approach, called anarchization, would deploy intelligence services and armed ruling party supporters to create street disorder in Caracas, making Venezuela ungovernable for any foreign backed replacement government. Sources said it remains unclear when each tactic would be activated in the event of attack.
The National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) comprises approximately 123,000 active personnel distributed across the army, navy, air force and national guard. However, six sources familiar with military capabilities told Reuters the forces are debilitated by lack of training, low wages and deteriorating equipment.
Some unit commanders have been forced to negotiate directly with local food producers to feed their troops because government supplies fall short, two sources with knowledge of state security forces revealed. Rank and file soldiers earn roughly 100 dollars monthly in local currency, far below the estimated 500 dollar cost of a basic food basket according to April data from the Venezuelan Teachers Federation.
Venezuela’s arsenal consists largely of aging Russian equipment purchased during the presidency of Hugo Chavez. The country bought approximately 20 Sukhoi fighter jets from Russia in the 2000s, but sources said these pale in comparison to advanced US B-2 bombers. Venezuelan Russian made helicopters, tanks and shoulder fired missiles are also outdated, defense sources confirmed.
Maduro recently announced deployment of 5,000 Russian made Igla surface to air missiles across Venezuelan territory, which a source indicated would be used for surprise attacks against aerial threats. The government has also reinforced routes leading to Caracas with anti vehicle barriers and heavy machinery to impede any ground assault on the capital.
Maduro claims 8 million civilians are training in militias to defend Venezuela, and some residents have told reporters they are willing to die resisting foreign invasion. However, one source with defense and security knowledge estimated that only 5,000 to 7,000 people would actually participate in anarchization scenarios, including intelligence personnel and armed supporters. Meanwhile, approximately 60,000 members of the Army and National Guard would be deployed for guerrilla style war of resistance, the source added.
The broader conflict involves drug trafficking allegations that Caracas consistently denies. Venezuelan opposition groups, nongovernmental organizations, Washington and some Latin American governments have accused Maduro’s administration and the military of ties to narcotics trafficking, particularly in western regions where Colombian guerrilla groups like the National Liberation Army operate. The government maintains it actively combats Colombian drug traffickers.
Venezuela announced a massive deployment of ground, aerial, naval, riverine and missile forces on 11 November in response to the American military buildup. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez described nationwide exercises involving nearly 200,000 personnel including police, militias and citizens defense units.
The US military has conducted at least 19 airstrikes since September against vessels allegedly transporting narcotics, reportedly killing around 75 people. President Donald Trump suggested land strikes would follow but later stated he was not considering attacks inside Venezuela.
Fulton Armstrong, who spent nearly 30 years in US government positions focused on Latin America, told Newsweek that while American forces could quickly overthrow the government, Venezuelans would likely mount clever campaigns of sabotage and sniper attacks to undermine US military operations and any installed replacement leadership. He predicted nationalistic fervor would make US or pro US forces feel like they were facing a swarm of bees when leaving safe zones.
Any resistance strategy faces long odds given the disparity between Venezuelan and American military capabilities. Yet defense sources and planning documents suggest Caracas has spent over a decade preparing asymmetric responses designed to make invasion and occupation prohibitively costly for Washington.
