An economist at Academic City University believes Ghana may finally break its cycle of fiscal recklessness after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme ends in May 2026, citing significant reforms in public financial management as evidence of commitment to sustained discipline. Dr Paul Appiah Konadu maintains that signals coming from the Ministry of Finance look different this time compared to previous IMF programme exits.
Speaking on the government’s 2026 Budget in an interview with The High Street Journal, Dr Appiah Konadu argued that the administration has shown a surprising level of self discipline even before the IMF programme officially ends. He pointed to multiple indications from the Finance Ministry suggesting a vision of continued discipline and prudence after the Fund leaves.
“In terms of signals for fiscal discipline beyond the IMF period, when the IMF leaves town in May 2026, I think from what we have seen from this finance minister and the government so far, they have been very disciplined, and so far they have given signals that they are ready to reform the Public Financial Management Act to ensure sanity in public spending,” he remarked.
Ghana entered its current three year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme worth approximately $3 billion in May 2023 after an economic crisis characterized by high inflation, rapid currency depreciation, and debt sustainability challenges. The IMF programme aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, ensuring debt sustainability, and fostering inclusive growth.
Dr Konadu described the establishment of Value for Money Units at the Ministry of Finance as “a beautiful intervention” that could break Ghana’s pattern of returning to the IMF every few years. He believes the initiative tackles one of the biggest leakages in Ghana’s public finances, which is the awarding of contracts without proper scrutiny.
Under this system, no government contract, whether for roads, hospitals, information technology systems, or supplies, can move forward without rigorous value for money assessment. The economist believes this single step could eliminate the inflated prices, questionable deals, and hurried procurement decisions that have drained Ghana’s coffers for years.
“One beautiful policy in that regard, I think, is the establishment of the value for money units at the Ministry of Finance to ensure that before any contract is awarded, we do value for money analysis,” he stated. He added that he looks forward to seeing that office weeding out corrupt practices in the procurement process and in the award of government contracts.
The IMF Director of Communications, Julie Kozack, confirmed in October 2025 that Ghana has made meaningful progress toward laying the foundation for fiscal discipline beyond programme completion. She noted that key reforms include a revamped fiscal responsibility framework, the establishment of an independent fiscal council, and improvements in public financial management aimed at supporting the efficiency of public spending.
The Fiscal Responsibility Framework includes a primary balance rule that requires an annual primary fiscal surplus of at least 1.5 percent of GDP, providing a concrete anchor for fiscal policy beyond the programme period. These structural reforms are designed to endure after May 2026 when IMF oversight ends.
Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama announced in October 2025 that Ghana is well positioned to exit the IMF programme when it ends in May 2026, as the country has started running ahead of programme targets on virtually all indicators. He cited declining inflation, improved reserves accumulation, and upgrades from rating agencies as evidence of Ghana’s strong economic turnaround.
Many analysts maintain that discipline after an IMF programme matters even more than discipline during it. Ghana knows how to behave when the Fund is watching; the real challenge is whether the country will keep the house in order when no one is standing over its shoulder. The country has entered IMF programmes 17 times since independence, raising concerns about its ability to maintain fiscal discipline independently.
Government sources have indicated that Ghana is considering subscribing to one of the IMF’s policy instruments, though not a full programme, as an additional signal of stability to ensure markets remain confident that fiscal discipline will not unravel. This would serve as reassurance to investors and donors concerned about post programme slippages.
For now, Dr Appiah Konadu insists that the early signs are encouraging. The Finance Minister’s emphasis on tightening expenditure controls, reforming the Public Financial Management Act, and insisting on contract scrutiny suggests that the government is not eager to return to the cycle of boom, bust, and bailout.
But he warns that the real test will come over time. Will political pressure of an election year weaken the discipline? Will the Value for Money Units be allowed to work without interference? Will institutions stay strong when reforms begin to bite? Only time will tell, according to the economist.
While acknowledging the efficacy of IMF loan supported programmes, the World Bank has encouraged the country to be intentional and bold about breaking away from its repeated reliance to meet its sustainable macroeconomic stability needs. The bank noted that Ghana must break from past governance failures marked by fiscal indiscipline, inefficiency, and repeated IMF programmes.
The IMF conducted its fifth review of Ghana’s programme in September 2025, with the final review scheduled for April 2026 before the programme concludes in May. Key areas of focus include inflation performance, reserve sustainability, fiscal revenue shortfalls, arrears audits, and challenges facing state owned and private banks requiring recapitalization.
Ghana’s economic performance has improved markedly under the programme. Inflation declined from nearly 54 percent in December 2022 to single digits by September 2025, while the cedi has shown greater stability and international reserves have been rebuilt to approximately 4.5 months of import cover.
Dr Appiah Konadu is an economist, educator, and sustainability researcher with over a decade of experience in academia and policy research. He serves as Lecturer of Entrepreneurship and Enterprise Development at Academic City University and is Director of the Africa Entrepreneurship School in Ghana.
