The United States national debt has crossed $39 trillion, a milestone that one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory firms is warning deserves far more attention from markets and policymakers than it is currently receiving.
The gross national debt of the United States reached $39 trillion on March 17, 2026, according to the US Treasury. The figure has arrived with little of the market alarm that might be expected given its scale, prompting concern among analysts that investors are too focused on near-term developments to reckon with a structural problem building steadily underneath the global financial system.
Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, said the debt load represented a fundamental risk that was being treated as background noise. “Too much attention is being given to the next short-term data point and nowhere near enough to the long-term debt burden sitting underneath the entire system,” he said.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its February 2026 outlook, projected that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and swell to $3.1 trillion by 2036 under current law. Over that same decade, debt held by the public is projected to surge from 101 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) today to 120 percent of GDP by 2036, eclipsing the previous record set just after World War II.
The interest burden alone is becoming a live market issue. Net interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026, nearly triple the $345 billion in interest the government paid in 2020.
Green warned that a debt load of this size narrows Washington’s room to maneuver. “It leaves the US more exposed to yield spikes, more exposed to external shocks and more exposed to shifts in foreign demand for Treasuries,” he said. Treasury yields have climbed sharply in recent weeks, pushing borrowing costs higher across the economy and lifting mortgage rates to their highest levels in months.
The $39 trillion threshold was crossed without a recession, a large stimulus spending package, or a full-scale military operation, suggesting the rapid accumulation of debt is primarily the result of structural rather than event-driven pressures. The milestone also comes amid growing concern over the cost of the Iran war, now in its third week with no clear end in sight, adding a geopolitical dimension to an already strained fiscal picture.
Green cautioned that the assumption of permanent stability in the US Treasury market was being tested. “Markets have become too comfortable with the assumption that the Treasury market will endlessly absorb huge supply without friction,” he said, adding that foreign holdings of US Treasuries have shown signs of softening at precisely the moment when refinancing needs are at their largest.
Without dramatic legislative action, the debt is expected to reach $40 trillion before the end of the 2026 calendar year, a trajectory that Green described as one of the defining financial risks of the year that is not yet receiving the scrutiny it demands.
