Vladimir Putin deployed what has been described as one of Russia’s deadliest weapons to Belarus, prompting fresh warnings from the country’s exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who stated that Europe must pay closer attention to developments as the nuclear capable hypersonic missile system known as Oreshnik was moved there.
Tsikhanouskaya told The Telegraph that observers see how on Belarusian territory, Alexander Lukashenko’s regime has intensified the presence of Russia. She stated that authorities are about to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus and Russian missiles, adding that it looks like they are preparing for escalation.
The exiled opposition leader stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom she recently met on January 25 in Vilnius, was aware of the risks, noting that this escalation might affect not only Ukraine but also European countries. She emphasized that stakeholders have to put more attention on what is happening in Belarus.
The Oreshnik is a mobile intermediate range missile system that experts say could reach the United Kingdom (UK) within minutes. While capable of carrying nuclear warheads, it has so far reportedly been deployed with conventional payloads. In December, Russia’s defense ministry released footage it said showed an Oreshnik system being placed on combat duty in Belarus, with President Alexander Lukashenko stating that 10 such systems would be stationed in the country.
Satellite imagery has pointed to a possible deployment site near Krychau in eastern Belarus, close to the Russian border. New buildings have been erected at what was previously an abandoned airfield, and railway infrastructure has reportedly been rebuilt. A Planet Labs satellite image captured on February 9 shows that fast paced construction began in August 2025 after the demolition of a charcoal production enterprise.
Decker Eveleth, a nuclear weapons and deterrence analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), stated that recent imagery confirms definitely heavy vehicles have arrived. He wrote that he believes probably at least two objects that are likely launchers, maybe three.
Eveleth added that placing the possible launchers and support vehicles in plain view before the garages are even up should suggest how fast they are moving forward with this deployment. By 2026, images show that several new buildings had been erected at the site and the railway tracks and station had been completely rebuilt.
However, some analysts have downplayed the strategic shift. Kurt Volker, former United States (US) special envoy to Ukraine, stated that there is a lot more nuance about this situation. He explained that first off, the command and control of Russian nuclear weapons remains Russian command and control.
Volker stated that if missiles are in Russia or if they are a few hundred kilometers further forward in Belarus, it does not really matter as they are nuclear weapons under Russian command and control and are pointed at all of us. He added that stakeholders should not get too alarmed that this is now some kind of new threat.
The development comes amid heightened military activity in Belarus including combat readiness checks and missile exercises involving ballistic and cruise systems such as Iskander. Lukashenko was recently shown inspecting armed forces as drills continued across several training grounds.
Tsikhanouskaya’s warning also follows broader tensions linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine, with allies such as North Korea reportedly facing domestic consequences after sending troops to support Moscow’s campaign. The Belarusian Defense Ministry stated on December 30, 2025, that the Oreshnik has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles).
Russian state media claimed that it would take the missile only 11 minutes to reach an air base in Poland and 17 minutes to reach North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) headquarters in Brussels. There is no way to know whether it is carrying a nuclear or a conventional warhead before it hits the target according to military analysts.
Intermediate range missiles can fly between 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,400 miles). Such weapons were banned under a Soviet era treaty that Washington and Moscow abandoned in 2019. Russia previously deployed tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Belarus, whose territory it used to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
While signing a security pact with Lukashenko in December 2024, Putin stated that even with Russia controlling the Oreshniks, Moscow would allow Minsk to select the targets. He noted that if the missiles are used against targets closer to Belarus, they could carry a significantly heavier payload.
In 2024, the Kremlin released a revised nuclear doctrine noting that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. The threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia with longer range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
The revised Russian doctrine also placed Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Lukashenko has ruled the nation of 9.5 million with an iron fist for more than three decades. His government has been repeatedly sanctioned by the West for its crackdown on human rights and for allowing Moscow to use its territory for the invasion of Ukraine.
Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv on February 6 that Belarus already fully or partially hosts Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile, warning that Moscow is trying to draw Minsk deeper into its full scale war against Ukraine. He stated that Russia has completed preparatory, technical work related to the Oreshnik missile on Belarusian territory, describing the move as a major escalation risk.
The Ukrainian president emphasized that one use of Oreshnik is that you have been drawn into the war. He added that if Russia manages to draw another country, Belarus, fully into this war, it will be a great tragedy. Zelensky stated that Ukraine has done everything to ensure the antennas do not work and will make sure that Oreshnik does not even start operating.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate range ballistic missile believed to be a modified version of the Rubezh surface to surface missile, itself derived from Soviet era ballistic missile designs. Russia first used an Oreshnik against Ukraine in November 2024, striking the city of Dnipro in what Putin called a successful combat test.
The missile’s multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload distinguishes it from other nuclear capable missiles used against Ukraine, making it exceptionally challenging for Ukraine to intercept with its current defenses according to defense analysts. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that the missile was launched from Astrakhan Oblast, likely from the Kapustin Yar training ground.
On the night of January 8, 2026, Russian forces launched an Oreshnik missile from Kapustin Yar test site that struck the city of Lviv, marking the first time Lviv Oblast was hit by a ballistic missile during the Russia Ukraine war. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the Oreshnik strike on the Lviv State Aviation Repair Plant.
Jeffrey Lewis, one of the US researchers who named the Krychau site as a possible location for an Oreshnik system in late December, wrote that its deployment so close to Russia’s border would not result in any increase in the reach of the missile system, noting that many areas in Russia and its Kaliningrad exclave are closer to London and Paris.
Lewis stated that the decision to base the Oreshnik less than five kilometers from the Russian border illustrates the degree to which the deployment reflects political considerations rather than an effort to seek some specific military advantage. The researcher noted that Putin is seeking to project strength and send signals to the West and the rest of the world.
Ivan Kirichevskiy, a Ukrainian soldier and expert on weapons issues for the Ukrainian publication Defense Express, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) that the images may indeed show vehicles related to an Oreshnik system. However he added that it cannot be ruled out that the Russians can create fake military positions in this way, and this could be one of such fake positions.
Russia has been ramping up military cooperation with Belarus while pressing its full scale invasion of Ukraine in a war that has vastly increased tensions with NATO and the West. A buffer state for Russia, Belarus is bordered on the south by Ukraine and on the west and northwest by NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly building a major ammunition plant in Belarus to help supply the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Construction is said to be underway close to Belarusian capital Minsk according to opposition group BELPOL, comprised of former members of the Belarusian security services.
