Mussa Dankwah, Chief Executive Officer of Global Info Analytics, has explained the dramatic changes recorded between two separate opinion polls conducted in the Ayawaso East constituency ahead of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary held on Saturday.
Speaking after the release of polling data, Dankwah revealed that his organisation conducted two distinct surveys in the constituency. The first poll was carried out between January 6 and 10, 2026, but was not published. The final poll was conducted between February 4 and 5, 2026, and was subsequently released to the public.
The January poll showed Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, leading Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the late Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure. Among all voters, Baba Jamal commanded 47 percent support against Hajia Amina Adam’s 32 percent. Among NDC voters specifically, the figures stood at 46 percent for Baba Jamal and 36 percent for Hajia Amina Adam.
However, the February poll revealed a complete reversal of fortunes. Baba Jamal’s support fell to 32 percent among all voters, representing a 15 percentage point decline, and dropped to 34 percent among NDC voters, a fall of 12 points. Hajia Amina Adam surged to 58 percent among all voters and 61 percent among NDC voters, establishing a commanding lead ahead of the primary.
Dankwah attributed the shift to campaign messaging and voter perception surrounding Islamic widowhood practices. He stated that there was wrong messaging and a miscalculation regarding how Muslims in Ayawaso East would interpret the Iddah issue. Voters appeared to view the constant focus on Iddah, a four month period of seclusion required under Islamic tradition for widows, as an attempt to blackmail Hajia Amina Adam.
The pollster emphasized that the religious composition of the constituency had been misunderstood by campaign strategists. While the constituency is approximately 74 percent Muslim and about 72 percent Sunni, Dankwah noted that this does not translate to Islamic conservatism. He described Ayawaso East voters as largely liberal in their religious and political outlook.
Dankwah revealed that personal perception played a significant role in voter choice. According to polling data, nearly 43 percent of voters who supported Hajia Amina Adam did so because of how they felt she was being treated during the campaign. The sympathy factor appears to have driven substantial support toward her candidacy.
The pollster used the findings to underscore the importance of data driven political campaigns. He advised that campaign teams must constantly verify whether their messaging is resonating with voters and be prepared to adjust strategy when messages fail to connect. He questioned how campaigns can identify ineffective messaging without conducting regular polling throughout the campaign period.
According to Dankwah, the experience in Ayawaso East highlights a broader lesson about electoral strategy. He stated that winning elections requires both art and science, with data playing a crucial role in guiding campaign decisions. A fundamental misunderstanding of voter demography and the absence of data to inform strategy ultimately misguided the campaign efforts of some contestants.
The pollster concluded by noting that the electorate would have the final say when delegates cast their votes in the primary.
The Ayawaso East parliamentary seat became vacant following the death of Mahama Naser Toure on January 4, 2026, after a period of illness at Korle Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra. The Electoral Commission scheduled a by election for March 3, 2026, to fill the vacancy. The NDC primary on Saturday, February 7, was held to select the party’s candidate for the by election.
