Brent crude prices rose to around $64 per barrel on Monday, gaining modest ground as traders weighed escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran against prospects of renewed oil supply from Venezuela.
The benchmark climbed to $64.26 per barrel, up 0.61% from the previous session, according to trading data. Over the past month, Brent has gained approximately 6%, though prices remain nearly 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting persistent oversupply concerns in the global market.
Oil markets have been caught between opposing forces. Escalating protests in Iran, one of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) key producers, have raised concerns about potential disruptions to its oil exports. Iran produces roughly 3.3 million barrels per day, making any disruption a material risk to global supply.
US President Donald Trump has threatened military intervention if Iranian security forces violently suppress protesters, declaring the US is “locked and loaded and ready to go.” On Monday, Trump announced 25% tariffs on goods from any nation doing business with Iran, intensifying pressure on the country amid widespread domestic protests that have entered their third week.
The unrest, which began in late December over economic conditions and currency collapse, has spread to more than 180 cities across all 31 of Iran’s provinces. Human rights groups report hundreds have been killed and thousands arrested, though these figures cannot be independently verified due to an ongoing internet blackout.
Investor focus on these risks helped support prices, particularly given concerns about potential impacts on shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows.
However, efforts to resume Venezuelan crude exports have tempered upside price pressure. Following US military action that removed former President Nicolas Maduro from power, Trump announced last week that Venezuela could release up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the US.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed the administration plans to control Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely,” with the initial 50 million barrels representing only the first tranche. Oil companies are reportedly arranging tanker shipments, with vessels potentially loading within days.
This anticipated return of Venezuelan barrels has weighed on prices, as markets factor in additional supply hitting global markets. Venezuela currently produces around 800,000 barrels per day, far below its peak production of over 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US oil benchmark, rose to $59.71 per barrel, up 0.35% from the previous session. WTI has climbed approximately 5% over the past month but remains 23% lower than a year ago.
Analysts say the market’s response reflects cautious equilibrium. While geopolitical risk remains elevated, tangible supply disruptions have not yet materialized, and the prospect of Venezuelan crude returning adds near term supply.
Additional supply concerns have emerged from Kazakhstan, where oil output faces challenges from adverse weather, maintenance work, and damage to Russian infrastructure caused by Ukrainian strikes. These factors have partially counterbalanced expectations of increased crude supply from Venezuela’s anticipated return to exports.
Market observers are now watching broader supply signals and demand indicators, including forthcoming US economic data, for clearer direction. The interplay between geopolitical tensions in Iran and new supply from Venezuela continues to create uncertainty in oil markets.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices to fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that level for the rest of the year, assuming global oil inventories continue to rise and putting downward pressure on prices.
