Global oil markets absorbed a second major shock on Tuesday as analysts warned Brent crude could climb toward $100 per barrel following the shutdown of Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom’s largest processing and export facility, after an Iranian drone strike that has added a concrete supply disruption on top of the Hormuz transit crisis already paralysing tanker flows.
Ras Tanura, located along Saudi Arabia’s Gulf coast, hosts one of the world’s largest oil export terminals and a major refining facility, processing crude from Saudi Arabia’s biggest fields including Ghawar, the world’s largest conventional oilfield. The port handles a significant share of Saudi crude exports, with cargoes typically heading to key markets in Europe and Asia including China, Japan, and South Korea.
The refinery can process 550,000 barrels of crude per day, meaning its temporary closure removes nearly 16 percent of Saudi Arabia’s refining capacity from the global market. After the shutdown, ICE gasoil futures surged more than 20 percent.
Brent crude futures soared to $82.37 per barrel in the first trading session after the attacks, the highest level since June 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, reached $75.33 during the same session before settling back. Both benchmarks have gained more than 15 percent since last Friday, when Brent was trading around $73 per barrel.
Analysts are now publishing scenario-based price projections tied directly to how long Ras Tanura stays offline. IPPFA investment strategy director Mohd Sedek Jantan said a restart within 24 to 48 hours could unwind the current fear premium and pull Brent back toward $74 to $76, but a delay of up to one week would tighten fuel inventories and lift crack spreads, holding Brent in the $82 to $88 range. A disruption lasting up to a month could push prices toward $95 to $100 as supply constraints intensify and Saudi Arabia is forced to prioritise domestic fuel needs and curtail exports. A shutdown exceeding one month would become systemic, with Brent potentially spiking to $120 to $140, triggering demand destruction and a full-scale global energy crisis.
Barclays analysts told clients in a Saturday note that Brent could hit $100 per barrel as the security situation in the Middle East spirals, while UBS warned that a material disruption could send Brent spot prices above $120.
The Ras Tanura strike compounds an already severe tanker disruption. Kevin Book, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners, described the Strait of Hormuz situation as a “de facto closure” defined by the risk tolerance of ship operators, with insurance companies raising premiums or cancelling policies entirely and sea captains declining to transit. “Infrastructure is at risk throughout the region, and it’s not just at risk because of deliberate attacks, but also inadvertent attacks,” Book said. “Shrapnel and debris from missile interceptions can fall onto facilities and disable them too.”
Natural gas markets have also been hit hard, with European futures jumping more than 40 percent after QatarEnergy halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following strikes on its facilities. Qatar is the second-largest LNG exporter globally.
One analyst offered a political constraint on how far prices could realistically climb. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said Trump would go to great lengths to prevent a lasting energy price surge given the political sensitivity of fuel costs ahead of November’s U.S. midterm elections, projecting oil prices would return to $65 to $70 per barrel after the near-term spike subsides.
For Ghana and other net oil-importing nations across Africa, the trajectory of Brent over the next two weeks will determine whether the pump price increases already implemented this week prove to be the beginning of a sustained series of adjustments or an isolated shock that quickly fades.
