The Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) expired today at midnight, leaving the United States and Russia without nuclear arms limits for the first time in over five decades. The Deep Cuts Commission issued a joint statement calling for urgent action to prevent an unconstrained nuclear arms race.
The expiration marks a critical moment in nuclear security. Without binding agreements, both nations can now increase deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems beyond the 1,550 warhead limit established by the treaty.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on September 22, 2025, that Russia would observe the treaty’s central quantitative restrictions for one year after today’s expiration, provided the United States demonstrates similar restraint and avoids actions that disrupt the balance of deterrence. United States President Donald Trump responded positively to the proposal on October 5, 2025, calling it a good idea, though no formal agreement has materialized.
The Deep Cuts Commission statement, signed by prominent arms control experts and former officials, expresses profound concern about reduced nuclear stability and predictability. Signatories include Thomas Countryman, Chairman of the Arms Control Association Board of Directors, Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, and Ambassador Laura Kennedy, former United States Representative to the Conference on Disarmament.
The commission calls for both nations to continue respecting New START’s central limits to create conditions for strategic stability talks. They urge immediate restart of bilateral discussions on a new framework addressing strategic nuclear weapons, sub-strategic weapons, intermediate-range systems, and strategic missile defenses.
United Nations Secretary General António Guterres stated today that the expiration marks a grave moment for international peace and security, noting the world now faces no binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on February 4, 2026, that Russia considers treaty obligations no longer binding and will determine future actions based on the evolving strategic environment while remaining open to diplomatic engagement.
Concrete nuclear restraint by both countries, including continued adherence to the global moratorium on nuclear test explosions, would signal their commitment to disarmament obligations under Article VI of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) ahead of the 2026 Review Conference.
New START, signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, restricted each side to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads on 700 deployed delivery systems. The treaty entered into force on February 5, 2011, and was extended for five years in 2021 under President Joe Biden.
Russia suspended participation in verification measures in February 2023 following escalating tensions over Ukraine, though it continued observing numerical limits. On-site inspections ended in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed.
The expiration creates risks of a three-way nuclear arms race involving the United States, Russia, and China, which has been expanding its nuclear arsenal. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for a new treaty including China’s participation.
The Deep Cuts Commission warns that failure to establish new restraints could undermine global security architecture and increase the risk of nuclear miscalculation. Their statement emphasizes that meaningful arms control talks would demonstrate Washington and Moscow are implementing their NPT disarmament commitments.
Without an agreement, both nations could theoretically double their deployed strategic arsenals within two years by uploading reserve warheads onto existing missiles and bombers, according to arms control analysts.
The project is funded by the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Additional information about the Deep Cuts initiative can be found at deepcuts.org.
