A Nigerian foreign policy scholar has raised the alarm that Africa’s most significant nations, including Nigeria itself, could face future military pressure from Washington as the United States pursues what he describes as a war economy that demands continuous conflict.
Prof. Femi Otubanjo, a Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), delivered the warning on Arise Television’s Morning Show on Tuesday, arguing that after Iran, the US military-industrial complex would seek new targets, with Cuba, South Africa, and Nigeria among the most vulnerable non-nuclear states. “If you are not a nuclear power, then be prepared for Trump,” he said.
Otubanjo argued that the US has carried out military interventions more than 58 times globally, describing this pattern as proof that the American military system depends on sustained conflict for its economic survival. He added that President Donald Trump’s personal disposition compounds this structural tendency. “Trump is a delusional person. He thinks that America has power and America must use it to get whatever it wants,” he said.
His warning lands against a backdrop of rapidly deteriorating regional security. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran on March 1, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Tehran against US military bases across the Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Trump told reporters he expects the war to last four to five weeks, though he acknowledged it could go considerably longer.
Otubanjo is not alone in his concern. The New African Magazine noted that Israel had already signalled an interest in seeing South Africa further destabilised, citing an early January 2026 blog published in the Times of Israel that was largely ignored by African media. The magazine warned that South Africa’s decision to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure decades ago may prove a strategic miscalculation in the current environment.
The Institute for Security Studies warned that Nigeria faces a particular domestic security dimension from the conflict, noting that Shiite groups in the country could mobilise in solidarity with Iran, adding to already fragile security conditions across the country’s Middle Belt.
More than ten African states, including Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Chad, and Sudan, have formally called on all parties to the conflict to refrain from further escalation. The African Union has similarly urged de-escalation but has not issued a formal condemnation of either party.
Security analysts warn that the conflict places African governments in an uncomfortable diplomatic position, potentially forcing choices between Washington and Tehran, or between the US and its rivals in Moscow and Beijing, with sanctions or aid withdrawal the likely price for the wrong answer.
