Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged marginally lower to 15.06 percent in February 2026, extending a disinflation trend that has now lasted eleven consecutive months, though a sharp spike in monthly food prices driven by Ramadan demand signalled that the path to price stability remains uneven for Africa’s largest economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Monday, showing the February figure declined by 0.04 percentage points from the 15.10 percent recorded in January, and was 11.21 percentage points lower than the 26.27 percent registered in February 2025.
The more telling signal lay in the monthly figures. The month-on-month inflation rate jumped to 2.01 percent in February from negative 2.88 percent in January, a swing of nearly five percentage points driven largely by Ramadan-related bulk buying and a seasonal reduction in farming activity that compressed food supplies and lifted staple prices sharply during the period.
Food inflation, the largest driver of Nigeria’s CPI basket, rose to 12.12 percent year-on-year in February, up from 8.89 percent in January, with the monthly food inflation rate climbing to 4.69 percent. The NBS attributed the acceleration to price increases across beans, carrots, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, yam flour, snails and dried ogbono.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, stood at 15.88 percent year-on-year and rose 0.89 percent on a monthly basis, reversing a 1.69 percent decline in January. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 6.03 percentage points to the headline index, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.95 percentage points and transport at 1.61 percentage points.
Analysts at Meristem said core inflation is expected to remain on a downward annual trend, supported by cheaper fuel prices following Dangote Refinery’s reduction of its ex-depot petrol price by N25 per litre to N774 in February, and by a 4.32 percent month-on-month appreciation of the Naira against the dollar in the official market, which averaged N1,355 per dollar during the month.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has set a transitional inflation target range of 16.5 to 18.5 percent for 2026, narrowing to a target band of 13 to 15 percent by 2027, as part of a phased approach to formalising forward guidance and strengthening policy credibility. Its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) next meets in late March to determine whether to hold or adjust its benchmark lending rate from the current 27.50 percent.
