The 62nd Munich Security Conference opened Thursday in Munich, Germany, as a major report warned that Western aid reductions could trigger millions of deaths across developing nations, with African countries facing particularly severe consequences.
The Munich Security Report 2026, titled Under Destruction, describes a world entering what it terms wrecking-ball politics, where the post-1945 international order faces systematic dismantlement. The report, released Sunday ahead of the three-day conference, highlights a sharp collapse in development and humanitarian assistance as one of the most critical security challenges facing the global community.
The United States shut down the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 2025 and cut foreign assistance programmes by over 80 percent. Germany is reducing foreign aid by approximately 50 percent, the United Kingdom by 40 percent, and France by 37 percent, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
A study published in The Lancet medical journal in July 2025 projects these aid cuts could cause 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030, including 4.5 million children under five. The research examined 133 countries that received USAID support between 2001 and 2021.
Ethiopia is projected to lose the most aid in nominal terms, nearly 1.1 billion US dollars compared to 2023 levels, according to analysis from the Center for Global Development. Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Jordan also face substantial reductions. Smaller African nations including Lesotho, Eswatini, and several others could lose close to half their development assistance.
Climate security expert Erin Sikorsky, Director of the Center for Climate and Security, identified three African regions at highest risk during an interview at the conference. Sudan, currently experiencing active conflict, faces compounding climate hazards. The Sahel and parts of West Africa, including Nigeria, are vulnerable as extremist groups exploit agricultural degradation and economic strain for recruitment. East Africa, particularly Ethiopia, confronts changing precipitation patterns that could reignite conflict if not properly managed.
The Munich Security Conference, running from February 13 to 15, 2026, has drawn nearly 50 heads of state and over 450 decision-makers. The Under Destruction report dedicates an entire chapter to what it describes as Death by a Thousand Cuts, examining the systematic reduction of development cooperation and humanitarian assistance.
Traditional donor countries have narrowed their definition of national interest to economic competitiveness and protection against immediate security threats, the report states. Budget cuts by major donors, most notably the United States, have ruptured development and humanitarian systems. UN agencies are limiting operations as a result.
The report warns that gaps left by Western countries will not be entirely filled by non-traditional donors from the Gulf or elsewhere. China is using the moment to expand its political and strategic influence within UN agencies, according to the assessment.
For African governments, the conference underscored the need for better integration of climate science into decision-making. The African Union was highlighted as a critical tool for sharing information across borders, since climate-related security threats do not respect national boundaries.
Early warning signs that policymakers should monitor include situations where farmers struggle to sustain livelihoods and where populations face forced internal displacement, Sikorsky noted. Both indicators suggest instability and potential conflict could be emerging.
The Munich Security Report 2026 concludes that actors still invested in the rules-based international order must fortify essential structures and become bolder builders themselves if they want to contain the worst expressions of destructive policy.
