Investor enthusiasm for MTN Nigeria’s shares reached a notable peak in April 2025, driven by mounting expectations that the telecom giant could post its first quarterly profit in nearly two years.
The anticipation stems from recent price adjustments and strategic shifts aimed at stabilizing the company’s financial footing after years of currency-related losses.
Trading activity for MTN Nigeria hit a milestone on April 15, with over 11 million shares exchanged on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) the highest single-day volume in the company’s history. This surge precedes the release of its first-quarter 2025 earnings report on April 29, a critical indicator of whether MTN has overcome the severe financial strain triggered by the naira’s 2023 devaluation. Analysts link the optimism to a 50% tariff increase implemented earlier this year, which is projected to bolster profit margins as early as this quarter.
As Nigeria’s largest telecom operator, controlling more than half of the market, MTN plays a pivotal role in the country’s digital infrastructure, providing voice, data, and broadband services to millions. Its stock performance is closely watched, influencing both investor sentiment and the company’s capacity to fund network expansions.
Recent moves, such as rebranding its home broadband service to FibreX and plans for a secondary public offering to dilute MTN Group’s 76% stake to 65%, signal efforts to diversify revenue and attract local investors. However, the share sale hinges on a return to profitability and resumed dividend payouts.
“MTN Nigeria’s shares remain undervalued relative to their earnings potential, even after the fourth-quarter rebound,” noted Tajudeen Ibrahim, Research Director at Chapel Hill Denham. The stock, currently priced at $0.19, has lifted the company’s market capitalization to $3.92 billion, ranking it fourth on the NGX.
In contrast, Airtel Africa, Nigeria’s second-largest telecom operator and the exchange’s most capitalized firm, has seen subdued trading activity. Between January and April 2025, fewer than 340,000 Airtel shares changed hands a fraction of MTN’s volume. Benedict Egwuchukwu, an analyst at Afrinvest, attributed this to Airtel’s limited liquidity, exacerbated by an ongoing $100 million share buyback program that reduces market availability. MTN’s broader investor base, meanwhile, allows smoother trading without drastic price fluctuations.
The rally comes after a tumultuous period for MTN Nigeria. Between 2023 and 2024, foreign exchange losses exceeding $700 million pushed the company into a $308 million net loss last year, despite a 36% revenue jump to $2.58 billion. A modest $88 million profit in Q4 2024, however, revived hopes of recovery.
Challenges persist, nonetheless. Soaring inflation and poverty rates 47% of Nigerians live below the national poverty line, per the World Bank threaten consumer demand for telecom services. MTN’s ability to retain customers amid shrinking disposable incomes remains a key test.
With its Q1 results days away, the stakes extend beyond shareholder returns. A profitable quarter could pave the way for MTN’s secondary offering and reinforce Nigeria’s digital growth trajectory. Investors appear to bet that the worst is over, but macroeconomic headwinds remind markets that recoveries are rarely linear. For a company central to Nigeria’s connectivity, the path ahead will hinge as much on economic stability as on corporate strategy.
