The global economy recorded modest expansion in the final quarter of 2025, driven largely by activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, according to the Minerals Income Investment Fund’s (MIIF) Economic and Market Overview for the fourth quarter of the year released on Thursday, February 6, 2026.
Data from the Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows that output improved in October, with the PMI Output Index rising by 1.15 percent to 53 from 52.4 in September. The improvement signaled steady momentum in global business activity and aligned with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projected global GDP growth of 3 percent for 2025.
MIIF noted that inflationary pressures eased during the period despite challenging global trade conditions. The moderation was linked to a slowdown in export orders, which reduced cost pressures across major economies. In November, export demand showed signs of recovery and stabilization.
The Global PMI dipped slightly to 52.7 in November, down 0.57 percent from the seventeen month high of 53 recorded earlier. Even with the marginal decline, global growth remained supported by the manufacturing and services sectors. The Services PMI Business Activity Index stood at 53.3, indicating strong performance.
Major economies including India, the United States and the Euro Area posted output growth above the global average, reinforcing their role as key drivers of worldwide expansion. The performance of these economies demonstrated resilience amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions affecting international commerce.
Momentum weakened further in December, as concerns over unemployment and softer demand weighed on business activity. Global PMI fell to 52, the lowest level in six months. MIIF stated that the decline reflected growing caution among firms as new orders edged down, pointing to slower demand conditions heading into 2026.
The report concludes that while the global economy closed 2025 in positive territory, the easing pace of expansion and weakening order books suggest that growth in early 2026 could face increasing headwinds unless demand and employment conditions improve. The PMI reading of 52 in December, while still indicating expansion, marked a notable deceleration from the stronger readings observed earlier in the fourth quarter.
The Economic and Market Overview report provides comprehensive analysis of global economic trends, financial market performance, commodity price movements, and macroeconomic indicators relevant to investment decision making. MIIF publishes quarterly economic reviews as part of its mandate to provide market intelligence and strategic investment guidance.
MIIF, established in 2018 as Ghana’s sovereign minerals wealth fund under the Minerals Income Investment Fund Act, manages mineral royalties and equity interests in mining companies on behalf of the Republic of Ghana. The fund has grown its assets under management from approximately $180 million at inception to over $1 billion by 2024, with projections to exceed $3 billion by 2026.
The fourth quarter review comes as global central banks navigate the balance between supporting economic growth and managing inflationary pressures. Major central banks including the United States Federal Reserve and European Central Bank maintained accommodative monetary policy stances throughout much of 2025, supporting economic activity despite persistent uncertainties.
Trade tensions and supply chain disruptions continued to affect global commerce in the fourth quarter, with export orders showing volatility across major manufacturing economies. The slowdown in export demand contributed to easing inflationary pressures but also raised concerns about the sustainability of economic expansion in 2026.
The services sector demonstrated greater resilience than manufacturing throughout the fourth quarter, with the Services PMI Business Activity Index remaining firmly in expansion territory. Services growth was supported by robust consumer spending in major economies and continued recovery in travel, hospitality, and professional services sectors.
Employment conditions showed mixed trends across major economies, with some regions reporting job creation while others experienced rising unemployment concerns. The December decline in the Global PMI was partly attributed to labor market uncertainties and their impact on business confidence and investment decisions.
MIIF’s analysis suggests that global economic performance in 2026 will depend significantly on the trajectory of demand conditions, employment trends, and policy responses from governments and central banks. The fund’s quarterly reviews provide valuable insights for institutional investors, policymakers, and market participants navigating complex global economic dynamics.
