Global air cargo was on a solid upward trajectory heading into March 2026, with demand rising and rates recovering for the first time in months. Then, on February 28, the world changed. The outbreak of the United States-Israel-Iran conflict has since ripped through international airfreight networks, erasing momentum and casting deep uncertainty over one of the world’s most interconnected logistics systems.
Data published this week by WorldACD Market Data, covering the five weeks to March 1, 2026, shows that worldwide air cargo rates averaged $2.29 per kilogramme in the final week of the reporting period, down from a five-week peak of $2.48. Chargeable weight volumes fell 18% in the last two weeks compared to the preceding two, and global capacity declined 8% over the same period. Rates were broadly flat year-on-year, masking significant divergences by region.
The scale of the exposure is significant. Approximately 21% of worldwide air cargo flows by weight are directly linked to the Middle East, either originating in the region, bound for it, or transiting through its major hubs as gateways between continents.
According to Rotate’s live capacity data, Middle East airspace restrictions directly affected around 13% of global air cargo capacity at their peak, with global capacity falling 18% within 24 hours of the initial suspensions compared to the same period the previous week. Qatar Airways Cargo, Emirates SkyCargo, and Etihad Cargo all suspended operations as Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi temporarily shut down amid multiple airspace restrictions, causing an immediate disruption to the Asia-Europe corridor.
The WorldACD regional data illustrates stark contrasts. Africa stands out as the only origin region recording both a capacity increase of 1% and a rate gain of 10% year-on-year in the last two weeks, suggesting that African exporters are benefiting from some rerouted demand as Gulf transit options closed. Asia Pacific, by contrast, saw chargeable weight fall 30% in the two-week comparison, with rates down 6% on the prior year. Europe recorded an 11% year-on-year rate gain, partly reflecting the scramble by airlines to reroute Asia-Europe cargo via Central Asian technical stops.
Xeneta warned that if the conflict drags on, rates on the most affected lanes could double or even triple, while higher crude oil prices would push jet fuel costs sharply upward and compound the financial pressure on carriers already managing disrupted networks.
Before the conflict erupted, February’s data had been broadly encouraging. Global air cargo demand rose 6% year-on-year, outpacing available capacity growth of 4% and pushing the dynamic load factor up two percentage points to 62%. Spot rates recorded their first monthly increase since May 2025, rising 5% to $2.58 per kilogramme. The Europe-North America corridor led all routes with a 21% year-on-year rate gain, while semiconductor demand pushed the Northeast Asia-North America corridor 10% higher.
Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw, captured the abrupt shift in sentiment: “If we only had February’s data to focus on, we would say the start of the year has been encouraging for the air cargo market. Now, the stakes are raised.”
For Africa-based exporters and importers, the disruption carries specific risks. Ghana’s gold export pipeline through Dubai has already been flagged by GoldBod as requiring contingency rerouting, while pharmaceutical, perishable, and electronics supply chains that rely on Gulf hubs for intercontinental connections face prolonged backlogs and rising logistics costs until normal operations resume.
