Ghana’s state-backed gold exporter is drawing up contingency plans to reroute artisanal gold shipments away from Dubai as the ongoing conflict across the Middle East grounds flights into the United Arab Emirates (UAE), exposing the depth of Africa’s largest gold producer’s dependence on a single refining corridor.
Physical gold flows through Dubai have been disrupted for seven days as the United States and Israeli military campaign against Iran spilled into neighbouring countries, grounding the majority of air transport in Dubai. For Ghana, the implications are acute.
Dubai normally refines around 80% of output from Ghana’s artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector. GoldBod, the sole official buyer and exporter of Ghana’s ASM gold since its creation last year, has already drafted contingency routes outside the UAE, though it has yet to feel any direct impact.
A senior GoldBod official, speaking without authorisation to be identified, expressed confidence that alternative demand exists. “There is always a market for gold. We have people lined up who have been knocking for years, some even ready to pay a premium,” the official said. Potential alternative refining centres include Shanghai and hubs in India, though redirecting shipments there would come at greater cost.
The logistical challenge is compounded by the nature of gold transport itself. Gold travels by air due to its high value-to-weight ratio, but traffic at Dubai airport, normally the world’s busiest, is operating at about 25% of normal levels, with priority given to passengers and essential cargo such as pharmaceuticals. StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell noted that when flights resume, early services are likely to prioritise perishable goods over high-value freight.
Spot gold prices have risen nearly 20% so far this year, trading above $5,000 an ounce, though recent sessions have been volatile amid dollar strength and physical supply chain disruptions from the conflict.
The economic stakes for Ghana are considerable. Record gold prices and the centralisation of trade through GoldBod drove Ghana’s official ASM output up 63% last year to 96 metric tonnes, valued at $15.8 billion at current prices, accounting for 52% of the country’s total gold production. A source at a Ghanaian artisanal mining company warned of broader consequences if the situation deteriorates. “A no-fly zone declaration would affect us big time, with no trade and no foreign exchange. The local currency may be affected with its economic consequences,” the source said.
The disruption has also renewed scrutiny of illicit flows. London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Chief Executive Ruth Crowell told Reuters the crisis presents an opportunity to disrupt illegal gold trade that has long undermined stability across Africa.
GoldBod’s mandate extends to purchasing up to 127 tonnes of gold annually from licensed miners. Since its establishment, the Board has overseen the export of 103 tonnes of gold in ten months, generating more than $10 billion in foreign exchange inflows and helping to build Ghana’s international reserves to $13.8 billion, covering approximately 5.7 months of imports.
Some airlines have extended flight suspensions in the region by several days, though Emirates airline has resumed limited operations and is targeting a return to full capacity within days. How quickly normalcy returns to the Dubai corridor will determine whether Ghana’s contingency options move from preparation to deployment.
