Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly developed a contingency plan to flee Tehran for Moscow if security forces fail to suppress nationwide protests or begin defecting to opposition demonstrators. Intelligence sources shared with British newspaper The Times revealed the 86-year-old leader intends to escape with approximately 20 close associates and family members if he perceives military and security personnel are no longer following orders.
The escape strategy, referred to as Plan B by intelligence officials, would include Khamenei’s son and designated heir Mojtaba Khamenei along with other trusted advisers. Beni Sabti, a former Israeli intelligence operative who fled Iran eight years after the Islamic revolution, stated that Moscow represents Khamenei’s only viable destination because there is no other place for him to go. The former intelligence officer explained that Khamenei admires Russian President Vladimir Putin and considers Iranian culture closer to Russian culture than to Western societies.
The contingency plan mirrors the December 2024 escape of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who departed Damascus by aircraft for Moscow to reunite with his family shortly before opposition forces seized the Syrian capital. Intelligence sources indicate that Iranian officials have plotted an exit route from Tehran and are gathering assets, properties abroad, and cash to facilitate safe passage out of the country if circumstances deteriorate.
Khamenei controls a vast financial empire through organizations including Setad, a powerful conglomerate of semi-state foundations known for financial opacity. A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated that holdings comprising companies and properties under the Supreme Leader’s control were worth approximately 95 billion dollars. Western intelligence sources suggest these resources would support the leadership’s exile if required.
Nationwide demonstrations erupted across Iran beginning December 28, 2025, initially sparked by Tehran shopkeepers rallying against worsening economic conditions following the Iranian rial’s collapse to record lows against the United States dollar. The protests rapidly spread to more than 100 locations across 25 of Iran’s 31 provinces, drawing university students into the movement. Demonstrators voiced slogans including Death to the Dictator in reference to Supreme Leader Khamenei, signaling both economic grievances and broader political demands.
At least 17 people have been killed during the week of unrest according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, commonly known as HRANA, though death toll figures differ between state media and human rights organizations. Videos circulating on social media platforms show clashes between armed security forces and demonstrators in Tehran and other cities, with reports of live ammunition, water cannons, and tear gas being deployed against protesters. Iranian authorities acknowledge some deaths but blame armed rioters rather than security forces.
Economic hardship remains the primary catalyst for the demonstrations. Annual inflation reached 42.2 percent in December 2025, representing an increase of 1.8 percent compared to November, according to Iran’s state statistics center. Food prices surged 72 percent during the same period. The Iranian rial lost nearly half its value against the United States dollar throughout 2025, with exchange rates reaching approximately 145,000 tomans per dollar by year’s end. The government announced small cash vouchers for citizens in an attempt to ease tensions, though critics assert the measures have failed to calm public anger.
United States President Donald Trump issued direct warnings regarding the Iranian government’s treatment of protesters. Trump stated on social media platform Truth Social that if Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States would come to their rescue. The president declared Washington is locked and loaded and ready to go, marking the most explicit American support for Iranian demonstrators in recent history. Trump reiterated the threat on January 4 aboard Air Force One, telling reporters Iran would get hit very hard if more protesters die during demonstrations.
Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded forcefully to Trump’s intervention threat. Ghalibaf warned that all American centers and forces across the entire region would become legitimate targets in response to any potential adventurism by Washington. Senior official Ali Larijani, former parliament speaker and secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, cautioned that American intervention in Iran’s domestic situation would correspond to chaos throughout the entire region and destruction of United States interests.
Iran formally complained to the United Nations regarding the American threats, insisting it would respond forcefully to any attack. Iranian Foreign Ministry officials cited longstanding grievances against Washington including a Central Intelligence Agency backed coup in 1953, the downing of an Iranian passenger aircraft in 1988, and participation in the June 2025 twelve day war when Israeli and American jets struck Iranian nuclear and military sites.
Senior Iranian officials have privately acknowledged that the Islamic Republic, which came to power in the 1979 revolution, has been thrust into survival mode according to sources who spoke with The Times and The New York Times. A Western intelligence agency’s psychological assessment of Khamenei described the Supreme Leader as paranoid and noted he has grown weaker both mentally and physically following the 2025 conflict with Israel. The intelligence profile suggests Khamenei hid in a fortified bunker throughout that war, avoiding the fate of other top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials while feeding his obsession with survival.
Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view during the recent unrest and has not appeared or spoken extensively during the protests. The Supreme Leader issued a brief statement on January 3 declaring that authorities would talk to protesters but asserting that rioters should be put in their place. Khamenei emphasized that Iranians must stand firmly against enemies attempting to impose their will on the country’s government and nation.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in 2024 on promises of good governance, attempted to defuse tensions by pledging new decisions to improve economic conditions. However, protesters have lost faith in Pezeshkian’s administration after experiencing water and electricity cuts while the president failed to deliver on promises including lifting internet censorship. Vice President Mohammadreza Aref acknowledged on January 5 that the government recognizes shortcomings while warning that some people seek to exploit the protests.
International reactions have varied significantly across different geopolitical alignments. North Korea issued a statement characterizing the American threats as the most serious form of sovereignty encroachment. Russia has supported Venezuela’s request for an urgent United Nations Security Council meeting regarding American actions in South America, though Moscow has not issued formal statements specifically regarding Iranian protests. China advised its citizens to temporarily avoid traveling to Venezuela following military strikes there but has not commented publicly on Iranian unrest.
Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency issued direct calls on December 31, 2025, urging Iranians to press forward with protests while claiming support for demonstrators on the ground. Israeli government accounts and officials publicly encouraged demonstrators, framing the unrest as potentially marking the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic. Israel’s foreign ministry posted imagery depicting a lion and sun, symbols of pre-revolutionary Iran, crushing the current regime’s emblem.
Analysts characterize the current protests as the most significant challenge to Iran’s leadership since demonstrations following Mahsa Amini’s death in custody during 2022 and 2023. The protests have taken on distinctly anti-government tones, with demonstrators in various cities chanting slogans such as Death to the entire system and Long live the Shah, referencing Iran’s pre-revolutionary monarchy. Pro-monarchy graffiti and slogans have appeared in Isfahan and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces.
Students at Shahid Beheshti University released a statement declaring that the criminal system has taken their future hostage for 47 years. Funerals for protesters killed by security forces in cities including Fuladshahr, Kuhdasht, and Marvdasht became sites of additional anti-government demonstrations, with participants chanting Death to Khamenei. At the Kuhdasht funeral for victim Amir Hessam Khodayarifard, members of the Basij militia and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were chased away with stones and chants.
The themes of protests have evolved from purely economic grievances to encompass broader demands for freedom, justice, and political transformation. HRANA assessed that the boundary between trade related demands and political demands has become blurred, with ongoing protests taking shape based on accumulated, multilayered grievances. Protesters have targeted government buildings, torched police vehicles, and burned propaganda billboards featuring images of revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini and current Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Economic woes have compounded years of political and environmental crises throughout Iran. Tehran, a city of approximately 10 million people, has experienced severe drought conditions. International sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program have been reimposed following the June 2025 war. The government has struggled to provide consistent water and electricity services across the country throughout the past year. Global financial institutions predict Iran will enter recession during 2026.
Supreme Leader Khamenei holds absolute authority over Iran’s military, judiciary, and media as the ultimate power in the Islamic Republic. All security forces including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij militia, regular army units, and police ultimately report to Khamenei’s command structure. The Supreme Leader’s control over these institutions means any large scale defections or refusal to follow orders would represent an existential threat to the current governmental system. Intelligence assessments suggest Khamenei would activate his escape plan precisely if he perceives such breakdowns in military and security loyalty.
